4th of July rain & thunderstorms possible: What to expect

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BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX) -- Plans for the 4th? By all means -- keep them! Do know that passing rain and thunderstorms will be possible across the Brazos Valley. Most likely window: mid-morning to mid-afternoon.

A ragged area of low pressure spent Tuesday moving westbound through Southern Louisiana. First wave of rain & thunderstorms reached the far eastern reaches of the area by the afternoon & evening hours. Heavy rain, thunder, lightning, and gusty wind were all common up to and beyond sunset. Radar estimates of 1/4" to 3" has fallen over parts of Houston, Trinity, and San Jacinto Counties Tuesday.

That low progresses into Southeast Texas by sunrise, or shortly before, Wednesday.


For most, a quiet and cloudy start is waiting out the front door Wednesday. A cluster of rain and thunderstorms may be happening in parts of San Jacinto & Montgomery Counties at sunrise.

The deciding factor of how much rain can fall during the day depends highly on where the center of this low pressure moves:

• Closer to the coast or inland -- higher amount of and longer lasting rainfall is expected.
• Further south off the coast / in the Gulf of Mexico -- lower rainfall totals and more sporadic activity is expected.

The general consensus is that the rain and thunderstorm potential will blossom as the day begins to warm by mid-morning. Scattered areas of wet weather will be possible through mid-to-late afternoon, moving east to west across the Brazos Valley.

While this will not be rain for all or some may only find a glancing round of activity, there will be the potential for heavy downpours, lightning, and wind in excess of 20-30mph at times.

Heading out to drop the boat in the lake? Make sure you are paying extra attention to the radar & keeping an eye on the eastern skyline. Lightning and high winds could be a concern for Lake Bryan between 10am and 4pm, reaching Lake Somerville between noon and 6pm.


Regardless of what happens through the day, the general trend is for rain and storm activity to move west of the Brazos Valley by 5pm to 7pm.

Plans to get out, pop the lawn chair open, and watch the red, whites, and blues take to the sky? Keep them. A small 20% chance for rain lingers past sunset. If the rain can really fall as it looks, rain cooled (but slightly muggy) 70s are expected by 9pm.

Headed out? Be sure to take the KBTX PinPoint Weather App along for advanced warning of heavy rain & lightning where you are.
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