Thursday Morning Update: 10am
Storms have developed this morning and will continue to moving northeast through the Brazos Valley. Heavy rain and frequent lightning are the main concerns with any storms that develop through the early afternoon. Beyond that, some of the storms could become strong to severe through the afternoon and evening if they redevelop. Gusty wind and small hail are the main hazards this afternoon, along with heavy rain and frequent lightning.
Wednesday Night Update
Storms did not fare so well coming out of Mexico tonight. Below is a view of their progress as of 8:15pm:
That batch of rain approaching South Texas / Brownsville could provide the chance of scattered rain by sunrise Thursday. At this point, overnight rain (other than a quick shower) and thunderstorm chance looks low (20% or less).
As of the latest run of the PinPoint Forecast Radar, scattered, passing rain and storms still looks on for Thursday afternoon.
PinPoint Forecast 1pm - 7pm
Forecast rainfall by sunset Thursday could range from a few tenths to around 1" (if a stronger storm passes overhead).
Another version of the Forecast radar for Thursday brings a more widespread rain & storm chance our way tomorrow. This will support the chance for wet weather -- however, may be overdoing things.
Wednesday Evening Update
Still on track for rounds of rain and storms in the Brazos Valley over the next 48 hours.
The first round may arrive in the area post 10pm Wednesday night / into the early hours of Thursday morning.
As of the 6pm hour, rain and storms that developed off the mountains of Mexico were attempting to move east.
If they can hold together, they could bring a few rumbles of thunder to areas of rain to parts of the area.
HRRR Forecast Radar 10p -4a | Likely overdone -- but consistent output through the day. *Possible* rain post 10pm pic.twitter.com/g8Db4hdwX3— Shel Winkley (@KBTXShel) May 25, 2016
As for Thursday -- still looking for scattered areas of passing rain & storms to move from the southwest to the northeast, through the afternoon hours.
PinPoint Forecast for rain & storm potential THURSDAY -- passing downpours possible. Few tenths to 3/4"+ in spots pic.twitter.com/ykv018Q6n9— Shel Winkley (@KBTXShel) May 25, 2016
Most of the area is outlined in a SLIGHT RISK for Excessive Rainfall (per the National Weather Service) Thursday, followed up by all of us in that outline Friday.
Wednesday Morning Update
Moisture aplenty looks to finally bring a chance for rain aplenty for both Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain, which could lead to flooding, will be the main threat, but severe weather can't be ruled out.
A huge surge of moisture that started earlier this week will fuel an upper level system set to bring multiple rounds of thunderstorms our way starting Thursday.
There will be a brief severe weather threat for both days, perhaps a bit more on Friday. With severe storms, wind gusts in excess of 60mph and quarter sized hail will be the main threats. Tornadic storms look unlikely at this point, but an isolated tornado will be possible as well.
The Storm Prediction Center has put most of the Brazos Valley under a MARGINAL risk for severe weather on Thursday, and the risk is upgraded to SLIGHT for Friday.
The main focus for Thursday and Friday will be for potentially torrential rainfall in already saturated areas. There's still uncertainty as to the location of the heaviest amounts of rain, but there's growing consistency in regards to the estimate of up to 3-5'' for portions of Central/East Texas.
EARLY ROUGH ESTIMATE
Should be stressed that this would likely be the worst case scenario for rain totals from now thru Friday evening, but localized amounts of 5''+ are absolutely possible. the locations and amounts will likely change as we get closer to Thursday and Friday, but all of us across the Brazos Valley should prepare for at least some minor flooding, similar to what we saw over the course of a few hours this past Saturday in Bryan/College Station.
With holiday travel, be cautious! We will continue to update the forecast as we get new information.