BRYAN, Tex (KBTX) - In a seemingly endless supply of named storms, hurricanes, and even major hurricanes from late August to now, we're getting a solid several day break from tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic.
Upper level winds (in part thanks to a big system rolling across the United States later this week, dragging another cold front by this weekend) are not supportive of new tropical cyclone formation over the next week or so. Models diverge pretty quickly after a week, but there's no hard evidence that we'll see a sudden blossoming of tropical activity toward the end of October.
Above are one model's prediction of tropical cyclone locations, "L"s over the next couple days, 5 days, then a couple weeks away. No L's over open waters in the Atlantic is reassuring for the next 5 days or so, and you'll notice that models then diverge greatly a couple weeks away. The biggest take away is that things look quiet for the next week or so, but uncertainty and unpredictability increase big time after a week.
In other words, we're confident that the tropics (at least in our corner of the world) will remain quiet for a solid chunk of the second half of October. Hurricane season "officially" ends November 30th.
Tropical Storm Lan has formed in the Western Pacific and could become a typhoon over the next couple days.
Model data brings Lan near Japan before swinging it north and east back into the open Pacific.
Harvey report release: For all things Harvey from the National Weather Service in the greater Houston area (including the Brazos Valley), NWS has released an extensive Post Tropical Cyclone Report. If you want to dive into how the historic storm impacted specific counties, this is your one stop shop for rainfall totals, pressure levels, tornadoes etc.
A couple things of note: The word "catastrophic" was used 5 times to describe flooding in areas around Houston and Galveston. The National Weather Service estimates Harris County had 136,000 structures flooded, with a damage estimate of over $183 million.
According to NWS, "over 100" residents in Brazos County have filed for assistance from FEMA for damage during Harvey. You may remember a tornado warning very early Saturday morning from a storm with rotation in southern Brazos County near Wellborn. The NWS says a brief weak tornado was possible and rated it an EF-0.
There are several reports of over 30 inches of rain total from Harvey in Brazos County alone.
The full report, including all counties impacted in the Brazos Valley from Hurricane Harvey, can be found on a link next to this story.