JANUARY 21st, 2018 -- Sunday Afternoon Update: 4:30pm
A tornado watch is in effect just to the north of the Brazos Valley, but that doesn't mean we are out of the woods when it comes to severe weather.
A few isolated strong/severe storms remain possible, mainly north of Highway 21 through the late evening. The primary concern with any storms that form are damaging wind gusts of 60mph+ and perhaps some hail up to the size of golf balls.
PinPoint Forecast 6pm-3am
After these storms move through, we can expect a breezy and sunny day for Monday, with elevated fire weather concerns around the Brazos Valley.
After spending the week trapped in a big winter chill, warm and humid air spent the weekend returning across the Brazos Valley. As the next cold front reaches the area, a thin line of rain & thunderstorms is expected to lead a in north wind.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Northeastern Brazos Valley under a SLIGHT Risk (yellow) for severe weather, with most of the rest of the area placed in a MARGINAL Risk (dark green).
While widespread severe weather is not expected Sunday afternoon & evening, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be counted out. Should that occur, damaging wind gusts and a very brief tornado threat would be the main concerns. Hail the size of quarters will likely be uncommon with any stronger activity, but is not ruled out.
Even with the greater slight risk extending into Madison, Leon, Houston, and Trinity Counties, the biggest concern for any significant weather is forecast just outside & to the north and east of the Brazos Valley. With the potential this close to home, it will be an event with cautious optimism as we keep a close eye on the radar through midnight.
Once the rain and thunderstorms pass -- drier air and clear skies are expected to take over from northwest to southeast overnight. Monday brings sunshine, highs around 60°, and breezy north / northwest winds. The fire danger will increase due to the windy & drier air / conditions.