FEBRUARY 19th, 2018 -- For 2018, Bryan / College Station is behind on rainfall (compared to average) by almost three and a half inches. Over the next few days, the Brazos Valley is expected to pick up between 1" and 5"+ of rain.
As of Monday evening, a Flood Watch has been issued for points just north of the Brazos Valley through North Texas, Arkansas, Eastern Oklahoma, and Southern Missouri.
While the absolutely heaviest rain in Texas is expected to the north and northwest of the Brazos Valley, there will be the opportunity for heavy rain and minor / isolated flooding locally Tuesday and Wednesday.
NOAA has placed the Brazos Valley in a SLIGHT to MODERATE Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Tuesday and Wednesday. Essentially that risk means there is the chance that heavy rain could fall too fast and / or too often that isolated areas of flooding may occur.
So what should you be prepared for?
Rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected to sweep through the Brazos Valley over the next few days. The first of that rain could fall as early as Tuesday morning over parts of Milam, Robertson, and Leon Counties.
Tuesday is expected to bring a break in the rain chance through midday before scattered rain and a few rumbles of thunder develop by mid-to-late afternoon.
Another round of rain and storms will fire up in West Texas Tuesday afternoon & evening, move east toward the I-35 corridor through the night, to arrive in the Brazos Valley during the early morning hours of Wednesday. That will open up what will most likely be a rainy & occasionally stormy Wednesday for the Brazos Valley.
Short of the long: take the rain gear out the door with you Tuesday morning and know that you will likely have to use at times through Wednesday (and potentially Thursday).
While severe weather is not anticipated, we need to monitor for strong storms capable of heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Isolated areas of flooding will be a concern -- although due to the lack of rainfall and a relatively dry ground, that threat will take some time to materialize (if at all).
Forecast rainfall totals are near / right at an inch for the Southern Brazos Valley. Central portions of the Brazos Valley can expect a potential of 1" to 3"+, with parts of the Northern Brazos Valley under the possibility of 4" to 6" -- all falling between Tuesday morning and Thursday afternoon. It is the 4" to 6" forecast totals that are concerning for potential flooding.
GFS Model Forecast Rainfall Through Thursday
EURO Model Forecast Rainfall Through Thursday