JUNE 22nd, 2017 -- Tropical Storm Cindy has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression as her winds are less than 39mph.
THURSDAY MIDDAY UPDATE
Tropical Storm Cindy has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression as her winds are less than 39mph.
Cindy will continue to weaken as she moves off to the north-northeast and will become a remnant low on Friday. Cindy is well inland and weakening but heavy rain and gusty winds are still possible in the path of the storm. The northern Gulf Coast and the southeastern and eastern United States can still expect strong to possibly severe storms.
For the Brazos Valley, our rain chance is winding down but a few more rounds of rain cant be ruled out. Our next best chance at rain will come Friday night through the weekend.
THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE
Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall before 4am Thursday morning between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas.
Cindy has made landfall between Port Arthur, TX and Cameron, LA! pic.twitter.com/GWxNWdQTJ3— Carly Cassady (@KBTXCarly) June 22, 2017
There has still been little change in the forecast track but the center of Cindy has shifted very slightly to the east. Cindy is moving to the north around 12mph and is expected to take a turn toward the north-northeast later today.
Maximum sustained wind speeds have decreased to around 40mph with some higher gusts. Cindy should continue to weaken and become a tropical depression later on today and then a remnant low tonight. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of Morgan City Louisiana and west of High Island Texas.
Advisory #11 issued on Tropical Storm Cindy. Cindy makes landfall in southwestern Louisiana. Flash flooding still a threat. pic.twitter.com/zUnyxEbz55— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) June 22, 2017
For the Brazos Valley, we have picked up a few light showers overnight but will continue to monitor Cindy as she continues to move to the north and east for more. Our main concern is isolated heavy rain from the outer rainbands of Cindy through the afternoon. Morning commute could get a bit soggy so be sure to take the rain gear with you when you step out the door this morning.
No severe weather expected but we could pick up a couple inches of rain.
Winds will stay breezy out of the north and cant rule out some gusts upwards of 20mph. Cloudy skies will continue to stay in place and that will keep our temperatures hovering the upper 80s to low 90s.
More to come on Cindy as the day goes on.
WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE
A quick aside from rainfall potential and whatnot associated with Cindy, we're enjoying rather pleasant weather early Wednesday evening with a north breeze, high cloud cover, and slightly cooler conditions. Isolated storms will be possible through the night with a better chance for rain as we head into tomorrow.
The newest track from the National Hurricane Center remains relatively unchanged, with landfall overnight, or very early Thursday morning near the Sabine River. Highest chances of rain will be east of the Brazos Valley, but we're not quite letting our guard down just yet for the chance for some heavy rains.
Bottom line: We'll see a robust breeze through Friday as Cindy rolls through the area, with our best chance at rain from Thursday morning through the afternoon commute.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Tropical Storm Cindy remains over 150 miles southeast of Galveston and is moving to the northwest at about 10mph. Cindy is still on track to make landfall near the Sabine River late Wednesday night/ early Thursday morning.
More storms have been developing along the northwest side of the low center through Wednesday morning, causing flooding and heavy rainfall for parts of Mississippi and Louisiana.
Not much has changed still about the forecast track and there have been no changes to the Tropical Storm Warning areas.
For the Brazos Valley, the further Cindy pushes to the east then the less rain we can expect. If Cindy goes westward more, then more rainfall for us here at home. We are still expecting some rainfall for southeastern Texas and in the Brazos Valley. Wednesday afternoon to evening hours we could see the first round of light showers from Cindy.
Not a lot of activity expected until we move overnight. Scattered showers to isolated storms possible overnight into Thursday. More widespread rain and storms likely during the day Thursday with heavier activity staying in the eastern counties. For the afternoon and evening hours, rain chances should start to move on out to the north as what will then be Tropical Depression Cindy moves further north and east.
There is a wide range of rainfall totals possible across the area. We could see anywhere from 1 to 6 inches. For the eastern counties, that is where the heavier activity is expected and localized flooding remains a concern, mainly for those along and east of I-45.
Cindy's intensity has decreased to 50 mph max sustained winds but we could still have strong gusts of up to 30 mph.
Impacts for the Brazos Valley are mainly on Thursday and on the lower end of the spectrum right now. We will continue to monitor Cindy as she moves closer and makes landfall.
WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE
Tropical Storm Cindy (as of the early morning update) checked in with sustained winds of 60mph. The storm is moving to the northwest and is expected to take a northerly turn later today / this evening.
While the changes are small, the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings the center of this storm up along the Texas / Louisiana border. Timing for landfall is expected shortly after 1am Thursday.
The storm is currently producing tropical storm force winds outward up to 275 miles from the center -- mainly north and northeast of the center. Slight weakening is expected later today as Cindy moves closer to the Upper Texas Coast.
FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY
First rain from Cindy is possible by late afternoon / at times this evening. Most of this rain is expected to generally be light.
By midnight, scattered rain will be possible for the East / Southeastern Brazos Valley. That rain chance will continue in waves for the area through the day Thursday, slowly clearing by the afternoon / evening hours as what will then be Tropical Depression Cindy moves further north and east.
Overall, heavy rain is still a concern -- although the slight shift to the east suggests the heaviest rain should remain in far East Texas / Louisiana. Regardless, localized flooding remains a concern -- mainly for those along and east of I-45.
Strongest winds are expected to remain on the north and east side of Cindy -- gusts upwards of 25mph are possible over the next 24-48 hours in the Brazos Valley, but as of this update Tropical Storm force winds are not expected.
Cindy is expected to remain a progressive storm. Impacts for the Brazos Valley are only expected Thursday -- although minimal.
Next update to the forecast from the National Hurricane Center is expected by 10am.
TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE
New model data starting to calm down a little with rainfall totals in our area, but wide range continues: near nothing to ~6'' possible. pic.twitter.com/G5G57INAId— Max Crawford (@KBTXMax) June 21, 2017
New updates from model data and the National Hurricane Center remain consistent with earlier forecasts, with the storm center passing just to the east of our area through the day on Thursday. As far as the impact for the Brazos Valley, we continue to eye the potential for rainfall totals above 5 inches, though that looks a little less likely as of right now.
Disclaimer: Don't get caught up on specific numbers and locations, but our in-house model is starting to pick up what we've been thinking for the past day or more: a wide range of rainfall totals, with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches or more. Flooding will be the main threat with showers and storms that roll through, as well as some gusty winds nearer the center of Cindy.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
As of the 4pm hour, Tropical Storm Cindy remains a weak tropical storm with sustained winds of 45mph. The storm is nearly stationary right now, but is expected to begin moving further NNW over the next 24-36 hours. The primary impact from Cindy will more than likely be VERY HEAVY rainfall. Gusty winds are also a concern, but heavy rain will result in possible flash flooding through Friday as Cindy makes landfall somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border.
The latest forecast cone track for Tropical Storm Cindy
Tropical Storm Warnings are in place as well as Flash Flood Watches for areas just east and south of the Brazos Valley. That may change over the next 24 hours, so be aware.
Tropical Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches
As mentioned above, heavy rain is likely with Cindy as she makes her way inland over the next 24-48 hours. Flash flooding is possible on Thursday and Friday.
Possible rainfall totals from Wednesday through Friday
As far as the evolution of Cindy, here's what we think best shows what will probably happen over the next 72 hours.
NAM 3km forecast radar through late Friday
TUESDAY MIDDAY UPDATE
As of the latest observations found by hurricane hunter aircraft, the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has now been name Cindy. Tropical Storm Cindy has sustained winds of 45mph and movement is stationary at this time.
Here's the latest information from the National Hurricane Center
The overall forecast track remains unchanged and keeps the western edge of the storm track over the eastern half of the Brazos Valley. More updates coming throughout the day.
TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE
The Brazos Valley is not under any watches or warnings at this time but Harris, Galveston, Liberty and Chambers counties are now under a Tropical Storm Watch. Watch is in the pink color, warning is in red.
The system in the Gulf remains a "potential tropical cyclone" but is forecast to become Tropical Storm Cindy later today. Overnight, the center of circulation with this system seemed to try to become better defined. As of this morning, maximum sustained winds held steady at 40mph -- mainly impacting the Gulf of Mexico on the east side of this storm. It remains very lopsided with most of the convection occurring on the east side -- however, as that circulation tightens and become better defined, the storm may become a bit more symmetrical.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shifts the path of this storm a bit further west -- with the current path of that circulation expected near the Texas / Louisiana border.
Parts of the Brazos Valley remain on the western side of the "cone of uncertainty" due to some computer forecasts bringing the system through parts of East & Southeast Texas. That said, there is fairly decent agreement with computer forecast models this morning (more so than Monday):
For now, those on the eastern side of this storm are expected to get the bigger rain impact. The way that this system is currently organized, the most likely scenario for the Brazos Valley is for a hot, dry, & windy conditions by THURSDAY. That said, winds may begin to increase as early as Wednesday as what could become Cindy slowly moves closer to land.
MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE
Model data looks just as frazzled as it has the past several days, but the expected track from the National Hurricane Center looks nearly unchanged, with heaviest rains well to our east.
Rolling into Monday night, we're still about as sure of the track of this sytem as we were earlier today. New model data has given a little more credit to a more westward track of this system, but we're still expecting the greatest impact of this potential tropical storm to be to the east of the Brazos Valley. Max Crawford explains in a little more detail in the FB Live video above.
We're seeing more organization with a disturbance in the Gulf, forecast to become Tropical Storm Cindy soon, The National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm watches/warnings.
Tropical Storm Warning issued for Intracoastal City in Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River.
Tropical Storm Watch issued for west of Intracoastal City in Louisiana to High Island in Texas to the east of Galveston.
As of right now, the projected path/cone of uncertainty does include eastern parts of the Brazos Valley, but not Bryan/College Station. The main areas that should be concerned at this point appear to be areas east of the Brazos Valley, but we'll keep a close watch on this system.
Tropical Depression Three Projected Path
The primary hazard with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall over the portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. We'll continue to monitor this system and keep you updated on its potential track over the next 24-72 hours. Keep in mind that the forecast cone can change and we will have to pay VERY CLOSE attention to changes in this forecast.
Precipitation forecast for the next 7 days from the Weather Prediction Center.
MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Unfortunately, there's still a large degree of uncertainty regarding the track and potential strength of this tropical system.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are poised to fly over this area of unsettled weather Monday afternoon (June 19th). We should have better data by the end of the day on the structure and strength of this system, which should breathe some new life into models, and hopefully give us a better idea of where this system is headed. For now, it is very much still in the air whether this system will track toward the central to eastern Texas Coast or closer to the Panhandle of Florida. We're talking thousands of miles of coastline for one system, so this is nothing to get worked up about just yet, but something worth watching over the next 24-48 hours especially. Should this system track a little closer to the eastern half of Texas, our main threat would be for heavy rains in our area. Stay tuned.
MONDAY MORNING UPDATE
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center keeps in the previous thinking, that this system that is now in the Gulf of Mexico will eventually develop into a Depression or Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. There is a high chance (80%) of tropical development by Wednesday. Here's a look at the latest thinking from the NHC in Miami:
A broad area of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula
across adjacent portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles
east and northeast of the estimated center. While the low still
lacks a well-defined center of circulation, gradual development is
expected today through Tuesday while it moves across the southern
and central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is
likely to form. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected
to continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next day or two. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system later today, if necessary. For more
information on this system, please see the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
As of right now, this system has been unable to develop a CLOSED circulation at the surface, meaning it is very disorganized. HOWEVER, it is possible that this could develop into a depression or storm in the next 48 hours. The disturbance is currently battling quite a bit of wind shear (a change of wind direction). Tropical systems DO NOT like wind shear. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system today and more details will likely aid in better forecasting where it might move over the next 24-48 hours.