A noted sports business analyst says with her initial research, she "cannot even begin" to understand a report from a Waco economist claiming the State of Texas will suffer multi-million dollar losses if Texas A&M leaves the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference.
Kristi Dosh, a contributor to Forbes.com and founder of businessofcollegesports.com put out an analysis of her own about a potential Aggie move.
It was Perryman who earlier in the week predicted major losses. His report stated if A&M leaves the Big 12, the State of Texas would stand to lose more than $200 million annually and more than 3,000 jobs. Plus, if the Big 12 were to dissolve, Texas could lose nearly $600 million a year and more than 8,000 jobs, according to Perryman.
However, Dosh contends there isn't truly a firm explanation about the impact Perryman is predicting.
Fears of a huge economic downturn in Waco if Baylor were to lose its Battle of the Brazos rival are largely unfounded, Dosh says. While noting she is not an economist, she crunched numbers from nearly a dozen Chambers of Commerce in SEC, ACC and Big Ten towns, finding the average direct economic impact of a college football game was between $2.5 and $3.8 million.
"Another opponent would come to town, and although likely not in the same droves as Aggie fans, the game would still have some economic impact on the city," Dosh wrote.
She also notes Waco's taxable activity in 2005 came in at $1.64 billion, while taxable activity is, on average, increased by hundreds of thousands of dollars for a city hosting a college football game, "not exactly hysteria-inducing numbers," Dosh said.
"Although Waco might incur some losses, the State of Texas would actually see a positive economic impact," she continued. "Currently when schools from within the state play one another and residents of the State travel to the game there is no new economic activity. Residents are simply spending their money in a different Texas town. However, when an out-of-state school visits and brings in its team, coaches, band, cheerleaders and fans new money is being pumped into the state economy."
And SEC school fans travel much better than those of Big 12 schools, according to numbers provided by Dosh, meaning the impact on the Aggieland economy could be huge.
"Based on my initial findings, I cannot even begin to find the origins of Mr. Perryman’s $217.2 million in losses," Dosh wrote. "I do not bill myself as an economist, and this post is by no means a complete analysis. It’s a starting point. It’s cold hard numbers from real sources."
The Bryan/College Station Convention and Visitors Bureau told News 3 earlier in the week that they believe the area would see an economic boost, in part because visiting fans would stay in the area longer, unlike University of Texas and Baylor fans who would likely go home the day of the game.
Dosh also notes the potential gains for the university in television revenue were they to make a jump from the Big 12 and its uneven distribution of revenues to the SEC, where the contracts are worth more and the revenue is split evenly.
You can read the complete write-ups from Dosh and Perryman at the links on the left side of this story.
News 3 has requested interviews with Perryman, but has not heard from him.