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Severe Weather Threat Over for the Brazos Valley: Storm Recap

By: KBTX Weather Email
By: KBTX Weather Email

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is in effect until 1:00am for Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, San Jacinto and Waller Counties.

1:45am Update

Thunderstorm activity continues to diminish across the Brazos Valley. As of now, there are a few thunderstorms stretching across Southern Washington County through Navasota and Montgomery towards I-45 in Northern Montgomery County.

Heavy rain, associated with a strong thunderstorm, over Conroe is finally starting to move to the east and will bring thunder, lightning and heavy rainfall to Southern San Jacinto County.

Most of the area will be cleared out, from rain activity, within the next hour or so.

We'll end our severe weather blog with this post -- unless the need exists to continue due to a severe weather warning (but that is not anticipated).
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1am Update

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire for the Brazos Valley.

Strong thunderstorms continue to exit to the east through Montgomery and San Jacinto Counties. Gusty winds 30mph to 40mph will be possible along with small hail, ample lightning, thunder and heavy rain. Rainfall rates are being estimated anywhere between 1" / hour to 3" / hour. Isolated areas of ponding of water on roadways will be a concern for the next few hours.

Otherwise, severe threat is quickly winding down for the area.

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12:30am Update

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY is in place for Southeast Walker, San Jacinto, Montgomery, Southeast Grimes, and Northeast Waller Counties until 1:30am.

Hail to the size of dimes and winds in excess of 40mph will be possible as the strongest of this activity moves across Montgomery and San Jacinto Counties.

These storms have shown signs of rotations, prompting tornado warnings earlier in the night. There is still a slight chance that there could be some rotation at times that will need to be monitored. As of now, storms remain below severe ratings.

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12:00am Update

Tornado Warning for Montgomery Co. until 12:15. Cell near Dobbin moving east toward Montgomery.

11:30pm Update

The TORNADO WARNING has EXPIRED and there are no current warning across the area. Below is a look at the radar during the time of the warning. There was no actual report of a tornado on the ground. Conditions were very favorable for a tornado to form. There where reports of hail and high winds.

10:00pm Update

Strong storms moving through the area. A severe storm warning is still in effect for Houston and Trinity Counties through 10:15pm. Hail and high winds are the main threat. Street flooding is not out of the question considering the heavy rain in a short period of time. The storms are moving in a South Easterly direction and expected to be south of the area after midnight.

8:45pm Update

Line of severe storms moving through the area. The main threat with this system has been hail, high winds, brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning. The Tornado Watch has been dropped due to the line of storms not being supportive of any strong rotation. There have been reports of hail up to the size of golf balls in the Madisonville area near OSR and 75.

7:15pm Update

The Tornado Watch has been extended until 8pm for our northern counties, and a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our central and eastern counties. A line of strong thunderstorms will continue to move east and southeast across the Brazos Valley through the evening. The primary threat is damaging winds, but hail or an isolated tornado still cannot be ruled out.

5:20pm Update

There is a 60% chance that the Storm Prediction Center will issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of Southeast Texas, including the Brazos Valley, for this evening.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is crossing the I-35 corridor and should enter our northern counties by 6:00pm. The line is expected to continue to move to the east and southeast across our region between 6:00pm and midnight. The main threat with this line will be from strong straight line winds, but hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

12:30pm Tuesday Afternoon Update

The Storm Prediction Center has put out an update on the severe weather threat for this afternoon / evening.

Northern parts of the Brazos Valley remain under a MODERATE RISK for severe weather. Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes will be the concern, in that order:

The rest of the Brazos Valley remains under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather. With the potential for a line of thunderstorms to move into the area this evening, damaging winds and hail to the size of quarters or larger will be the main concern heading into tonight:

Above is the latest from the KBTX PinPoint Computer Model Forecast. Indications are that there still could be some isolated thunderstorm activity that tries to develop through the late afternoon hours, but it is more likely that a line of thunderstorms will approach from the north and west heading into the early to mid evening hours.
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10:30am Tuesday Morning Update

Our chance for thunderstorms is still anticipated to move in later this afternoon / evening.

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10am Tuesday Morning Update

Below is the latest hi-res NAM computer model (4km). What this is trying to do is forecast what the radar may look like between 7pm and midnight.

With this suggestion that a line of storms will try to form and move across the Brazos Valley, should severe weather occur, damaging winds and large hail would be the main concerns.

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7am Tuesday Morning Update

The latest outlook put out by the Storm Prediction Center remains unchanged for the Brazos Valley.

A wide MODERATE RISK (in red) is in place across much of Texas -- including Dallas / Fort Worth / Waco / Tyler back through the Arklatex and down into parts of the Brazos Valley.

For the Brazos Valley, the MODERATE RISK (or elevated area of risk for severe thunderstorms), is in place for Milam, Robertson, Leon, North Madison and Houston Counties.

A SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms is in place for the rest of the Brazos Valley through early tomorrow morning.

Best bet for severe weather will be anywhere along a line from Brenham to Navasota to Madisonville to Trinity and points north.

Thunderstorms will likely initiate across Oklahoma this morning and drift south across the Red River. Those storms should continue to develop as the day progresses.

Between noon and 4pm, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across North and Central Texas (from Dallas / Fort Worth to the Waco area) -- those storms will lead concern as they will have the best potential to bring a tornado threat.

By late afternoon / evening, thunderstorms will likely merge together and form into a line. While this would suggest the possibility of a damaging wind / hail threat, with this activity, it does lower the tornado potential a bit.

FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY

Threats

-- Damaging winds in excess of 60 - 70mph possible with severe storms
-- Large hail will be possible -- some of which could exceed 2" in diameter (about the size of a hen egg)
-- Isolated tornado threat. (Should any isolated storms form, they will need to be watched for possible signs of rotation)

Timing

Isolated thunderstorms could drift into or pop up over the northern Brazos Valley by late afternoon (after 3pm).

Should storm activity north of the area come together to form a line of storms, that will likely have a better chance of moving through by the evening hours.

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3am Tuesday Morning Update

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of the Brazos Valley to a MODERATE RISK for severe weather late Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will likely initiate across Oklahoma this morning and drift south across the Red River. Those storms should continue to develop as the day progresses.

Between noon and 4pm, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across North and Central Texas (from Dallas / Fort Worth to the Waco area) -- those storms will lead concern as they will have the best potential to bring a tornado threat.

By late afternoon / evening, thunderstorms will likely merge together and form into a line. While this would suggest the possibility of a damaging wind / hail threat, with this activity, it does lower the tornado potential a bit.

FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY

Threats

-- Damaging winds in excess of 60 - 70mph possible with severe storms
-- Large hail will be possible -- some of which could exceed 2" in diameter (about the size of a hen egg)
-- Isolated tornado threat. (Should any isolated storms form, they will need to be watched for possible signs of rotation)

Timing

Isolated thunderstorms could drift into or pop up over the northern Brazos Valley by late afternoon (after 3pm).

Should storm activity north of the area come together to form a line of storms, that will likely have a better chance of moving through by the evening hours.

**Next Update due in shortly after 7am**

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Severe weather ripped through Oklahoma and parts of Texas Monday afternoon producing multiple tornadoes, baseball size hail and areas of flooding. The severe weather is associated with the same upper level low that has the potential to bring storms to our area starting tomorrow.

Tuesday's forecast will be one to watch. Computer models are in good agreement forecasting a line of storms pushing through the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The storms do have the possibility to reach the severe level. As seen below most of the Brazos Valley is under a Slight Risk while our Northeast Counties are under a Moderate Risk for severe weather.

A 30% chance for rain Tuesday afternoon increases to a 40% chance as we head into Tuesday evening. Rain chances will linger through the day Wednesday as the system moves further Southeast. Should storms manage to become severe, hail, high winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

Here's a look at the FORECAST from our PinPoint Computer Model:

STAY UP WITH THE FORECAST

You can keep up with the latest here on this story or by swinging over to the PinPoint Weather Page. You can also track rain at your desk by using our Interactive PinPoint Radar.

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