Soaking Rain Moving Out of the Brazos Valley

By: KBTX Weather Email
By: KBTX Weather Email

A widespread rain event is underway in the Brazos Valley as a rich, tropical air mass collides with a cold front. 1" to 3" of rain will be possible for a good portion of the area by Saturday morning.
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8:45pm Update

Heavy rain has pushed south of I-10 this evening and will continue to exit the Brazos Valley all together.

The Flash Flood Watch that was supposed to be in effect until 7am tomorrow has been allowed to be CANCELLED early.

Only light showers / drizzle will be possible through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning before 10am.

Drier and cooler air will spill slowly into the Brazos Valley overnight and tomorrow. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the upper 60s to low 70s -- daytime highs will rebound to the low / mid 80s alongside a breezy N wind and a slow clearing sky by afternoon.

This will be the final update we bring you this evening. Additional information can be found on Twitter and Facebook.
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8pm Update

Heavy rain has pushed south, out of most of the Brazos Valley.

As of the top of the hour, we are still finding moderate to heavy rain across Southern Austin County and Central & Southern Waller Counties. A band of light rain is slowly sagging to the south as showers are running to the northeast.

Other than a few light showers to the north and west of the area, we seem to be done with big rainfall for the rest of the evening and night.

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Milam, Robertson, & Leon counties -- for now -- but those may be dropped before the 7am expiration time tomorrow.
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7pm Update

A FLOOD ADVISORY continues to be in effect for Southwest Lee County -- including Giddings.

A band of heavy rain is now moving out of the Brazos Valley to the east -- extending into the Southeastern corner of San Jacinto County. Steady rain continues to fall across Madison, Grimes, Walker, Brazos, Burleson, & Washington Counties. However, after the band of rain extending from Madison Washington County passes, we'll likely see a break in the rain and only pick up light showers from this point forward.

Here are some of the official totals that have been recorded today:

Other rainfall totals reported in by Weather Watchers:

Bryan (Coulter Field): 2.78"
Shenandoah Sub-Division (College Station): 2.20"
Southwest Valley: 3.75"
Tabor Road & Hwy 6: 2.50"
Centerville: 3.30"
Carlos: 2.15"
Snook: 3.71"
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4:45pm Update

Other than the Flood Advisories we talked about earlier in the afternoon (listed below) -- no other major issues have come across from the National Weather Service. Steady to heavy rain continues to fall across much of the Brazos Valley.

Here are some of the official totals as of between 4pm and 5pm:

Here are some of the totals we've received from Weather Watchers across parts of the area:


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3:45pm Update

Steady rain continue to fall across the Northern half of the Brazos Valley with heavier rain now setting up across Lee, Burleson & Brazos Counties.

Current Rain Totals Sent in:

--Carlos: 1.90"
--Centerville: 2.98"
--Between Brenham & Somerville: 1.75"
--Just north of the Robertson / Brazos Co. line on Hwy 6: 5.50"

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2:30pm Update

A band of heavy rain has set up across the Southern portions of Robertson, Milam and Leon Counties.

Residents in Wheelock have called into the PinPoint Weather Center with reports of anywhere between 5" and 8" of rainfall.

A Flood Advisory continues for the northern half of the area until 5pm to 6pm this evening.
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2pm Update

A FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for Milam & Robertson Counties until 5:45pm, Leon County until 6pm, and Lee County until 3pm.

A Flood Advisory means that areas on roadways, ditches and creeks could briefly have issues with collecting water making them difficult to pass.

If you see water over a road, remember the old saying "Turn Around, Don't Drown" -- find an alternate route.
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1:30pm Update

Numerous waves of rain and isolated thunderstorms are moving from the southwest to the northeast across the Brazos Valley this afternoon.

The cold front that is expected to move through overnight is still lingering just south of the Texas Panhandle early this afternoon. A band of rain and thunderstorms is slowly working south towards Milam, Robertson and Leon Counties as of early this afternoon, as well.

We should see that line strengthen and produce more rainfall, heavy at times, as it slowly moves through the Brazos Valley this evening and overnight.

Some areas have already picked up anywhere between 0.5" and 1.50" of rainfall today, with more accumulation expected.

Here's a look at the latest PinPoint Computer Forecast Model estimate on possible rain totals through Saturday morning:


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Through Today and Into Tomorrow

What we're dealing with this morning(scattered showers off and on) is expected to continue for the next several hours into the early afternoon. Heavier widespread rain is expected later this afternoon and into tomorrow morning. Some areas could see an isolated thunderstorm later in the afternoon as the main line of showers moves through. The main line is expected to pass through while most of us are sleeping tonight. There is still potential for localized flooding with the possibility of isolated locations receiving up to 3 inches of rain. The cold front will push off the Texas through midday tomorrow taking most of the rain with it. Winds will shift in from the North through the evening hours allowing for cooler air to sink in through the day. Light isolated showers will be possible through tomorrow evening.

Much Needed Rainfall

While we've had rain here and there, across the Brazos Valley over the past few weeks, it has not been enough to dent the ongoing drought across the region. As of Thursday morning, a majority of the area was classified as being in an "Extreme Drought" -- one classification away from the worst drought conditions (listed as "Exceptional Drought").

Below is the latest Drought Monitor, released Thursday morning, September 19th:

Friday Umbrellas Needed

A hefty amount of rain was falling across different parts of Texas Thursday afternoon. Tropical Depression Manuel -- over Western Mexico -- was providing Pacific moisture to fuel showers and thunderstorms from West Texas to the Panhandle. Rich Gulf of Mexico moisture, streaming in from the south, had scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms moving through Southeast Texas and up into the Dallas / Fort Worth area.

A cold front was slowly sagging through the Texas Panhandle Thursday evening, and will continue to crawl through the rest of the state. That front will pool tropical moisture against it and provide the lift for copious showers and thunderstorms. Once the front passes a given area, rain chances will fall off as drier and, somewhat, cooler air fills in behind it.

When Will The Rain Come?

Sunrise Friday morning will bring mostly cloudy skies and a few spotty showers, mainly across the Southern Brazos Valley. We'll continue with peeks of sunshine mixed with ample cloud cover and a few showers through the mid-morning hours.

By Noon, we should start to see more shower and isolated thunderstorm activity drift north from the Gulf of Mexico / Texas Coast. We'll call for a 50% chance of passing showers and rumbles of thunder as temperatures climb into the mid 80s.

Early afternoon (3pm to 5pm) will start to show signs of better widespread rainfall moving towards / into the Brazos Valley. Northern counties should experience a slow moving, wide line of showers and thunderstorms moving in along the cold front (discussed above).

Evening / Overnight hours: Computer models have been consistent on forecasting our widespread rain moving in by the end of the day Friday and into the darker hours. This is when rainfall is expected to be heaviest. If there is to be brief, flash flooding to occur on area roads, the late evening & overnight hours will be the window for it.

Saturday morning showers will continue to be possible -- albeit, light. Heavier rain will likely be sagging south towards the Houston area. Drier air will move in on breezy north to northeast winds and we will slowly start to dry out heading into the afternoon. Highs on Saturday are only expected to top off in the mid-to-upper 80s.

How Much Rain Should I Expect to See?

1" to 3" of rainfall is anticipated across the Brazos Valley, by sunrise Saturday. Here is the best, broad estimate of where we will see higher totals:

Below are two of our In-House, PinPoint Computer Forecast Model Outputs for rain totals by Saturday morning. The top image is from our Hi-Res Model. Regardless, both are showing that needed rain is possible in the Brazos Valley. Where the heaviest rain sets up will need to be monitored as it comes Friday evening.

Hi-Res Output

Low-Res Output

Regional, Hi-Res PinPoint Computer Forecast Model

Texas View of the PinPoint Computer Forecast Model

Keep Up With the Latest Details

Be sure to check our Interactive PinPoint Radar before stepping out Friday -- and keep an umbrella close by, regardless.

You can also keep up with any advisories or warnings by following the KBTX PinPoint Weather Team on Twitter, Facebook, or Google+.


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