After Soaking Rains, Flash Flood Watch Cancelled For the Brazos Valley

By: KBTX Weather Email
By: KBTX Weather Email

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Brazos Valley running through Wednesday evening. Forecast computer models are predicting a wide spread 2 - 5 inches of rain, with isolated pockets upwards of 7 inches possible.

3pm Update

This widespread, steady rain is coming to an end from the west to the east across the Brazos Valley. The clearing line, for rain, has moved completely through Lee County and is now drifting through Milam, Burleson, Washington and Austin Counties. As the afternoon turns to evening, we'll continue to see this trend across the Brazos Valley:

You can keep up with where the rain has ended by checking in on our Interactive PinPoint Radar through the evening if you have to get out for errands or plans.

Keep in mind, even though the rain has cleared, it may take a few hours for trouble spots on area roadways to clear as the water slowly starts to recede back into creeks and ditches.

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2:30pm Update

As of 2pm, Bryan / College Station has picked up 3.66" of rain officially at Easterwood Airport (and still counting). The average rainfall for the ENTIRE month of January is 3.24" on average. We've exceeded that just within these past two days.

Here's a picture from Snook that News 3's Clay Falls took while working on a story for tonight about the areas of flooding across the area. Have a similar picture? Email it to news@kbtx.com and weather@ktbx.com so that we can share it with everyone.


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2pm Update

Rainfall continues across 98% of the Brazos Valley but is still trying to come to an end in our far western counties.

As of the top of the hour, rainfall totals (over the past two days) have exceeded 6" in parts of Burleson County. Here are the latest numbers for different locations in the area:


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1:50pm Update

Snook ISD has announced the closing of its schools at 2:00 p.m. today due to water over the roads. After school programs are canceled today, and tomorrow, school will open at 9:00 a.m., with buses running about an hour late.

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1:30pm Update

A FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for Montgomery County until 4:15pm.

Steady to moderate rain is falling across all of the Brazos Valley. The clearing line -- and end of our rain -- is slowly pushing in to Lee and Milam County. As this line slowly works it's way to the east, that should be the end of our widespread rain for this event. There may still be a few spotty showers heading into the early evening hours. One more broad area of showers south of La Grange will try to give the Lee, Milam, Washington and Burleson County area's one last chance at rain after a brief break this afternoon.

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12:30pm Update

After seeing a break in the rain across the Western half of the Brazos Valley, light & steady rain have moved back in from the south and is spreading to the north. Heaviest of the rain is from a Madison, Grimes to Waller County line and points to the east, including the I-45 corridor.

As of now, it doesn' t look like this steady rain is going to end anytime soon.

There have been reports of a few problem spots due to the constant rainfall. CR 270, about 4/10th of a mile south of FM 60, in Burleson County has water running over the road. It is impacting about 100 yards of 270.

As of the top of the Noon hour -- Bryan / College Station was officially over the 3.30" mark. The last time we received this much rain in a few day's time was back in March 8th through 10th of last year.
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11:30am Update

A new FLOOD ADVISORY is now in effect for Austin, Waller and Montgomery Counties through 2:15pm. Heavier rain and stronger thunderstorms are feeding into the Brazos Valley out of the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Heaviest rain in the area is currently located over Waller, Montgomery, and Grimes Counties while moderate rain falls in Brazos and Walker Counties. Elsewhere, if rain is falling, it is doing so at a slow, steady clip.

There is scattered light showers out to the west of the Brazos Valley but it seems that trends are showing the heaviest of the rain for the day currently sitting over our area as we speak. This activity is moving slowly to the north / northeast at around 20mph, but it is also all slowly transitioning to the east. We'll have to watch our eastern counties (mainly) for the potential of a bit of flooding heading into the afternoon hours.

The western clearing line is slowly approaching the Brazos River (the Burleson / Brazos County line) and it looks like the steady rain may come over the next hour or two here in Bryan / College Station. That being said, scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm will not be out of the question this afternoon.

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10am Update

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for Austin (and possibly soon to be Waller) County as a strong storm moves in with rainfall rates between 1.0" per hour and 1.50" per hour. Lightning and gusty winds upwards of 40mph are also associated with this activity.

As for the rest of the Brazos Valley -- rain is slowly starting to taper off in both the western and eastern extremes of the area. Steady to moderate rain continues in our central counties along with in Bryan / College Station.

As of 10am, Caldwell has officially made the swim over the 5 inch mark in terms of two day rainfall. Here's a look at a few locations in the area (note: a few locations -- such as Hearne -- seem to be hung up and are not reporting correctly):

Other locations 30 hour rain totals (as issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth):

-Thorndale (Milam County): 2.96"
-Rockdale (Milam County): 2.52"
-Cameron (Milam County): 2.31"
-Centerville (Leon County): 2.60"
-Lake Limestone (Leon County): 2.31"
-Easterly (Robertson County): 2.10"

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9am Update

The back edge of this big area of showers and few, embedded thunderstorms is starting to move through Lee County as of the 9am hour. That being said, there is a bit more scattered, light rain along I-35 that will try to work into our western counties later this morning.

While rain is slowing -- at least for the time being -- in our western counties, it will start to pick up through our southern and southwestern counties. A line of heavy rain and thunderstorms stretches from Austin Country to the Coast around Port Lavaca and Palacios. This activity will continue on a north to northeast path, around 20mph, into the Brazos Valley.

Rainfall rates have slowed as the morning hours have moved on -- but plenty of rain has fallen over since yesterday morning. Here's a look at the 9am rain totals in a few locations in the Brazos Valley (note: a few locations -- such as Hearne -- seem to be hung up and are not reporting correctly):


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8:30am Update

Steady to moderate rain continues to spread across the Brazos Valley as it spills into our eastern counties as of the 8:30am time frame.

A FLOOD ADVISORY is now in effect for Robertson County until 12:15pm.

FLOOD ADVISORIES have been reissued for Milam County until 11:15am and Lee County until 10:30am.

Two Day rainfall is approaching 5 inches, officially, in Caldwell and other parts of Burleson County. Other widespread two day totals are between 2 and 3 inches in many locations of the Brazos Valley, with steady rain expected to fall through the mid-morning hours.

We should start to see rainfall taper off in Western Milam and Lee Counties over the next hour or so.

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Wednesday 8am Update

A FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for Brazos, Burleson and Washington Counties until 9:45am -- that includes both Bryan and College Station. As mentioned in previous updates (below) -- Rainfall rates between 0.5" per hour to 1.0", as a stronger storm moves in from the west and the southwest, may cause issues on side streets, roads close to small creeks and ditches along with low water crossings over roadways.

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Wednesday 7:45am Update

Steady rain continues to fall across the Central and Western half of the Brazos Valley, but is quickly starting to spread back into the eastern side of the area. Rainfall is steady to occasionally heavy (with a few strong -- non severe -- thunderstorms that contain thunder, the occasional lightning strike and winds gusting up to 30mph) as it moves through the area. As of the 7am hour, here is a look at some of the 2 day rain totals for our area (note: a few locations -- such as Hearne -- seem to be hung up and are not reporting correctly)

Weather Watcher reports from Centerville have totals around 2.20" of rain from yesterday and overnight, as more rain heads in that direction.

As we continue through the day, scattered showers are expected to remain with us through at least mid-morning and then scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms will be possible again after the noon hour. Overall, in addition to the 1-3 inches of rain that we've picked up over the past 24 hours across the Brazos Valley, it is not out of the question to pick up another 1-3 inches today. (In fact, College Station / Bryan have already seen over an inch of rain this morning). Here is the outlook on *possible* rainfall accumulation through Thursday morning:

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Wednesday 6:50am Update

A FLOOD ADVISORY is now in effect for Austin, Burleson and Washington Counties until 8:45am -- that includes Caldwell and Brenham.

Rainfall rates between 0.5" per hour to 1.0", as a stronger storm moves in from the west and the southwest, may cause issues on side streets, roads close to small creeks and ditches along with low water crossings over roadways.

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Wednesday 6:15am Update

A FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for Milam County until 8:15am. Small creeks, water crossings and side roads may have excess water overrunning them as 2 to 3 inches of rain has fallen within the county since yesterday and steady rain continues to fall early this morning.

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Wednesday 6am Update

A FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for Lee County through 8am. Low water crossings and small creeks may begin to collect water due to a steady rain falling over the early morning hours along with heavier rain moving into the county from the south and southwest.

An advisory is in place to alert you that there could be issues in your travels this morning -- no official flood warning have been issued and there have yet to be reports of problems on Lee Country roads.

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Wednesday 5:45am Update

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for Burleson, Lee, Austin and Waller Counties through 6:15am. A line of strong thunderstorms to the South of Lee County (the Giddings area) is currently moving the the north / northeast at about 20mph bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds upwards of 30mph. Rainfall rates with this area of thunderstorms is estimated around 1" per hour.

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Wednesday 5am Update

Rainfall continues across the Brazos Valley. As of the top of the hour, Bryan / College Station officially passed the 2" mark for rainfall over the past two days. Caldwell has exceeded the 3" mark and will climb towards 4" over the next couple of hours if trends continue as they are.

We are monitoring a band of strong thunderstorms just to the southwest of the Brazos Valley. This line has shown signs that it is building in strength as it approaches the western and southern portions of the area. Within this band of storms, Flash Flood Advisories have been issued due to heavy rainfall.

For the latest -- tune into News 3 for Brazos Valley this Morning 5:30am to 7am. A check of the radar and today's forecast will be on the 3's (every ten mintues).

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Wednesday 4am Update

Quick update for you. During the 3am hour, Easterwood airport recorded 0.68" bringing our two day total for Bryan / College Station to 1.77" so far. Caldwell also received quite a bit of steady rain this morning bringing their two day total between 2 and 3 inches from different locations across the area.

A brief break in the rain is ongoing currently for the south and western portion of the Brazos Valley (with more rain starting to develop and work east) while stead rain continues to fall across the northern and eastern half of the area.

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Wednesday 3am Update

Another break in the rain activity is in store for many across the area as a patch of drier sky is moving in from the Washington and Austin County area. That being said, more steady showers and embedded thunderstorms are working their way to the north / northwest this morning out of the San Antonio and Hill Country area which should be able to bring another push of shower activity into the Brazos Valley.

Here's a look at the 3:10am Radar Image

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Wednesday 2am Update

After a generally quiet night with passing showers in the Brazos Valley, rainfall is starting to pick up as a large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is moving in from the south and the west.

Rainfall overnight has been copious for other parts of Texas -- during the 12am to 1am hour, San Antonio received 0.70" of rain. That rainfall, combined with rain that starting falling steadily last night, has forced public works to start closing some roads in the San Antonio area. Dallas and Fort Worth had more rainfall yesterday than they did in the entire month of December.

Bryan / College Station set a record for daily rainfall on Tuesday with a measurement of 1.10" of rain.

As for this morning, we'll continue to see rain move into the area. Some could be locally heavy at times, and with an almost constant rainfall expected through daybreak (should activity hold up the way it has thus far overnight) there could be some ponding of water on area roadways as we head out for work and school.

Details as need, but for now we'll leave you with the reminder that a FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect through at least this afternoon.

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Tuesday 2pm Update

The eastern and southern portions of the Brazos Valley is currently covered by shower and thunderstorm activity.

As of 2pm, Easterwood Airport has picked up a total of 1.04" of rain since midnight. Other rain totals across the Brazos Valley range as high as 0.5" to 0.8".

The radar is relatively quiet to the west of the area -- for now. As mentioned in previous updates, as better moisture and atmospheric dynamics line up, we'll continue to hold onto the potential for more scattered storm activity to form.

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Tuesday 1pm Update

The upper low that is driving our Flash Flood Watch and possible rain event is currently over Mexico and is slowly working it's way towards Southwest Texas:

As this low continues to move closer, our rain chances will continue to increase for the Brazos Valley. One batch of heavy rain and thunderstorms is currently moving through the Brazos Valley and will continue to lift to the North / Northeast at 20 to 20 mph. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, occasionally lightning and thunder will accompany these storms -- however, activity is expected to remain non-severe.

Our moisture values continue to increase with our upper level dynamics (the low moving closer to Texas). A well defined line of showers and thunderstorms is working northward from the Texas Coast and will likely serve as the area to watch for the most activity along and behind. Dew points have increased into the 50s across the Brazos Valley should reach the upper 50s to low 60s at their max.

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Tuesday Midday Update

Scattered showers and thunderstorms (non-severe at the time) are lifting to the north and the northeast through the Brazos Valley this morning, as expected. Here's a look at the 11am radar image:

Here is what the PinPoint Computer Forecast Model was showing for around 10am this morning:

Both are pretty close to tying the line between forecast and actual weather, which still gives us confidence in more showers and thunderstorms -- some strong with heavy downpours possible -- this afternoon, evening and tomorrow as better moisture and atmospheric dynamics come together.

We'll continue to monitor trends on the radar to fine tune when areas of rain will drift through the Brazos Valley. Here's a look at the activity across Texas:

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Tuesday Morning Update

After starting the morning with a cluster of thunderstorms in our southeastern counties, more shower activity is starting to increase from the west this morning. Any shower activity that forms this morning, should remain light to moderate. The potential hazardous weather (heavy rainfall) is expected to move in during the afternoon hours.

The Flash Flood Watch in effect for the Brazos Valley is not contained to just our backyard. National Weather Service offices in Houston / Galveston, Fort Worth and Austin / San Antonio have all issued a Flash Flood Watch for their portions of Texas through Wednesday.

Too Much Rain All At Once...

...the potential for that is what led to Flash Flood Watches being issued. Here are a look at our in-house, PinPoint Computer Forecast Models of how much rain could fall over the next 48 hours:

High Resolution Model

Lower Resolution Model

While these are just computer estimates, one thing can can be taken from these models -- that a widespread, hearty rain is possible for the Brazos Valley. While needed in our drought state here in Texas, should too much rain fall too fast, runoff will be problem (which could lead to that Flash Flooding we've been talking about).

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Tuesday Early Morning Update:

Milam, Robertson and Leon Counties have officially be included in the Flash Flood Watch that will remain in effect from this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

As of 4am, the National Weather Service has officially included Lee County in the Flash Flood Watch as well. That will now cover all of the counties in the News 3 viewing area.

Light showers were already ongoing across the Brazos Valley as a warm front is slowly starting to work northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect passing scattered showers possible this morning, followed by the chance for heavier rain and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.

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Previous Updates

Strong Upper-Low Spinning Our Way

A large, and soon-to-be even more powerful, upper level storm system is dropping out of SouthernCalifornia / the Desert Southwest towards Mexico tonight and then into the Western side of Texas Tuesday. That storm system is going to be the driving force behind finding a good (almost certain -- *knock on wood*) rain chance. Some of which may be locally heavy throughout Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.

A surface low will form on the eastern side of the mountains in Mexico, which will help lift a warm front to the north out of the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday -- enter rain chance #1. Light rain showers could fall from overcast skies as early as tonight, but the heavier and more likely rain chance doesn't seem to move in until after mid-morning tomorrow and especially into the afternoon when that front lifts into the Brazos Valley.

Rain chance # 2 comes with the actual upper-level system moving through Southwest to Central to Northern parts Texas during the day on Wednesday. That could drive a large complex or line of showers and thunderstorms -- along a cold front -- into the Brazos Valley, moving from west to east throughout the day. It's on Wednesday when we look for the threat of the heaviest rain along with the slight chance for severe thunderstorms to form.

Severe Storms and Potential Flash Flooding

The biggest threat for hazardous weather comes mainly on Wednesday. As our upper-level system moves through the state with a slight negative tilt, that could produce thunderstorms that have the potential for strong damaging winds (especially if these storms take on a squall line appearance) or even an isolated tornado threat. The Storm Prediction Center has us placed under a "SLIGHT RISK" for Wednesday because of these threats.

The Flash Flood Watch that is currently in place will start at noon on Tuesday and (for now) is slated to run through Wednesday evening. The potential for 2 to 5 inches of rain is in the forecast, with isolated pockets of 5 to 7 inches of rain not out of the question. Should a heavy storm move in and sit for an extended period of time, or if storms train -- heavy rain continues to move over the same area throughout the 48 hour period -- low lying roads & ditches along with creeks and rivers may have the chance to briefly flood.

Possible Rainfall Totals

Take this with a grain of salt for now, but the images below show the *possible* rain totals over the next couple of days.

PinPoint Computer Forecast Model - This is the outlook through Noon Wednesday. We expect higher totals in our eastern counties than are portrayed here as the computer hasn't pushed a bulk of the rain that direction until Wednesday afternoon.

General Outlook - While everyone won't see the same amount - here is the overall outlook for different counties across the Brazos Valley.


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