I have been picking NFL games against the spread for a couple of years now. I am by no means an expert (as my season record clearly shows) but I have never managed to do as poorly in one week as I did last week. 2-10-1. Two wins, ten losses, and a push! Two or three of the games were bad beats where the team I picked barely didn’t cover, but that’s the nature of picking against the spread. Frankly, it’s a little embarrassing. If you were taking any advice from these articles, (it was pretty clear after Week 1 that you should not be) I think your best course of action now is just to pick opposite of whatever I pick. On every game. But I’m not going to give up! Everyone has bad weeks, and I’m going to get back on track this week. Bye Weeks: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston.
Buccaneers at Vikings (-6) – Minnesota has proven itself to be a pretty good team through the first seven weeks of the season. Tampa Bay on the other hand, has not. Josh Freeman did throw for a career-high 420 yards last week so there is a slight possibility he is turning things around, but I think the Vikings 11th-ranked pass defense stops the Buccaneers in their tracks.
Patriots (-7) at Rams (Game played in London) – On top of losing one less hour than St. Louis traveling to London, the Patriots are a better all around team and should win this game. And if the Patriots offense finally clicks, they should win without too much difficulty.
Colts (+3.5) at Titans – Chris Johnson has been hit or miss this season, but on the games that he hits, he hits big. Unfortunately for the Titans, I think the Colts will make the Titans find another way to move the ball and cover.
Jaguars (+15.5) at Packers – The Packers are a much better, more complete team but 15.5 as a lot of points to be giving. Even though MJD is out, Rashad Jennings is a very capable backup and I think that Jacksonville can keep this game interesting for at least a little while.
Chargers (-3) at Browns – The Chargers are coming off of a bye-week and playing one of the 4 worst teams in the NFL. If they are even halfway decent, they should win this game, and I expect them to.
Falcons at Eagles (-2) – I think that this is the week that the mighty Falcons finally go down. They are a great team but all teams have off-weeks (see: Packers at Texans, Week 6). They should still remain a fixture near the top of the NFL Power Rankings though.
Seahawks (+2) at Lions – Detroit doesn’t have a consistent running game and the Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the NFL. I like Seattle to cover but expect this to be a low scoring affair.
Dolphins at Jets (-2.5) – The Jets have netted -11 points this season but have still managed to win 3 games and remain 1 back of the division-leading Patriots. If they want to have any shot at the playoffs, they have to win this game so I expect them to come out firing. Then again, they are the Jets so there is also a good chance they lay down and get run over by the surprisingly good Dolphins.
Panthers at Bears (-7.5) – The Bears defense has forced 21 turnovers this season and ranks first in run defense. Expect more of the same against the Panthers this weekend.
Redskins (+4.5) at Steelers – As much as I hate to admit it, Robert Griffin III is an exciting player to watch and gives the Redskins a chance in every game. He still hasn’t earned his nickname but he is getting close.
Raiders at Chiefs (-1) – What an atrocious game. Both of these teams are awful but Arrowhead Stadium can get pretty rowdy so I’ll take the Chiefs giving a point.
Giants (-2.5) at Cowboys – This line opened at Cowboys (-2) and has moved 4.5 points in the other direction. That’s a huge jump but I agree with it. I think the Giants get revenge from their Week 1 loss and stick it to the Cowboys.
Saints (+6) at Broncos – Playing in the thin air up in Denver is never easy but the Saints can put up points anywhere. The Broncos have a tendency to start slow and if they spot the Saints a lead to start, I don’t think that they’ll let the Broncos back into the game.
49ers at Cardinals (+7) - The Cardinals have fallen pretty dramatically from their 4-0 start all the way to 4-3, but they still have a very good defense. This game comes down to which team can move the ball better against the other team’s stellar defense. Conventional wisdom says to take the 49ers but my gut is saying Cardinals so that’s what I’m going with. Then again, we’ve seen how well my gut feelings have worked out so far this year.
Last Week: 2-10-1