Gustav Downgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane
The latest advisory on Hurricane Gustav now has it as a category 1 hurricane with winds sustained right around the center at 90 mph. The center of Gustav was located as of 2pm at 29.9 N and 91.5 W about 35 miles SE of Lafayette, LA. Movement was to the NW at 16 mph. This storm is expected to continue on its northwest heading right into the Ark-La-Tex. Copious amounts of rain are expected to our northeast as the storm bypasses us to the north. Yesterday, models indicated that the storm may stall out over east Texas and then move in a southwesterly direction. Indications are this afternoon that the storm will continue to move to the northwest and eventually re-curve into the Midwest. If anything, conditions around the Brazos Valley may turn out to be quite pleasant. We're still going to keep a slight chance of rain in the forecast...just in case. We'll continue to update the blog as we know more.
Hurricane Gustav made landfall Monday morning southwest of New Orleans near Cocodire, LA. Maximum winds were at 110 mph, making it a category 2 storm at landfall. New Orleans was on the eastern or "dirty" side of the storm, where some of the worst conditions could be felt. Six to ten inches of rain, along with high storm surges and tornadoes are being felt across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Gustav will continue to track northwestward and rapidly weaken, eventually pushing across northeast Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. As mentioned in the previous entry, I believe most of the activity will be northeast of the News 3 viewing area, however rain chances range from 40% in the southwestern portions of the Brazos Valley to 80% in the northeast (Houston and Trinity counties).
As Hurricane Gustav moves closer to land, rain chances across the Brazos Valley are starting to sharpen up a bit. The storm is forecast to make a westward turn into Texas once it makes landfall. By the time it arrives, it will be substantially weaker and should only be a rain-maker for the Lone Star State.
As is stands now, the best chances for rain will be in the northeastern portions of the News 3 viewing area. We have Houston and Trinity counties down for an 80% chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rain chances are slightly lower westward at 60% for Leon, Madison, Grimes, Walker, San Jacinto, Montgomery and Waller counties.
The lowest rain chances will be from Bryan/College Station westward. We have Brazos, Robertson, Milam, Burleson, Washington, Austin and Lee counties penciled in with a 40% of rain Tuesday and Wednesday.
While the general rule will be higher rain chances east and northeastward, don't be too surprised if your forecast is modified over the next few days. A small change in the track of Gustav can produce significant changes in your forecast.
Gustave Becomes Category Four Storm
The National Hurricane Center issued an advisory Saturday afternoon confirming maximum winds up to 145 mph in Hurricane Gustav, making it the first category four storm to develop in the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Also of note: the forecast track has also shifted westward a bit.
Friday Morning Update:
Gustav is moving northwestward through the Caribbean. The storm will move into the warmer waters of the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico this weekend, which will result in rapid strengthening.
The latest coordinates are suggesting the storm moving more westward, which may result in the forecast track shifting westward as well. Pictured right is the latest forecast track. The white line represents the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
A special advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center Thursday morning to upgrade the maximum winds in Gustav to 70 mph. The storm should become a hurricane -- again -- later today.
The official track has also shifted back to the west, putting the Texas coast back into the region that could see a potential landfall. I should also stress, however, the the official track is still towards the Louisiana coast.
We have modified your forecast slightly for the beginning of next week with increasing clouds on Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll probably see a spike in temperatures by Sunday, as the sinking air around Gustav will create warmer conditions once the storm approaches. We're keeping your rain chances pretty low for now, until confidence increases with the eventual path of the Gustav.
Amongst the extended coverage from most news organizations highlighting the return of the educational process we call school, Mother Nature didn't quite appreciate being thrown in the backseat. So she created Gustav!
The tropical depression in the Caribbean was officially upgraded to the seventh named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season Monday afternoon. The quick intensification of the storm was evident on satellite imagery Monday morning. A semi-well defined eye was even spotted during the 12 o'clock newscast.
Maximum winds in the storm are at 60 mph, with higher gusts. Gustav is forecast to track northwestward, bringing plenty of rain to Jamaica and Haiti. The storm is forecast to track south of Florida by the weekend, but at this point, the weekend is too far away for anyone to say for sure whether or not the storm will track into the Gulf of Mexico.