After a relatively quiet season in the tropics in 2009, you should prepare for a busy 2010.
An above average hurricane season is predicted for 2010.
Anywhere from 11-16 named storms are predicted to form in the Atlantic and Caribbean. Of those, 6-8 are expected to reach hurricane status with 3-5 developing into major hurricanes. Long-range models predict that up to 5 of these storms may make landfall in the U.S.
For hurricanes to form there are a couple conditions that have to be met. First, they need plenty of warm water. Hurricanes only form over waters at least 80 F. They also need a very large body of water. We typically don't see hurricanes form in the South Atlantic Basin because it's not large enough. The heat and moisture are what feeds these storms and allows them to survive. This is why they dissipate so quickly once they move over land.
Next, they need favorable winds not only at the surface, but in the upper levels as well. Wind shear is a change in height and direction as you go higher up in the atmosphere. Too much of it will rip a newly forming storm apart.
The El Nino phenomenon that kept Texas wet and cold this winter also kept things quiet in the tropics in 2009. El Nino years are known for strong wind shear in the Atlantic.
As the El Nino effect dissipates, meteorologists are preparing for an active 2010 Hurricane Season.
Why is this year expected to be worse than any other normal year?
First, hurricanes help transport heat northward from the equator toward the poles. Since we had so few last year, there is a lot of heat still bottled up in the ocean near the equator.
Also, with the decrease in wind shear over the ocean, more storms will be able to mature without being ripped apart in their developing stages.
Hurricane season runs from June 1- November 30.
