*Updated 4:48 p.m. Saturday* Tropical Depression Bonnie is struggling to hold on as it prepares to make landfall in Southeast Louisiana tonight. Winds are only 30 mph with the storm and will rapidly weaken once the center moves onshore. Bonnie already looks pretty pitiful and the highest waves in the area are only around 6 feet.
Some circulation can still be seen on satellite, but it's very small and there's hardly anything in the way of convection, or thunderstorm activity, near the center. Bonnie should hit the Southeast coast of Louisiana around midnight tonight, then continue to move Northwest.
To view the Satellite image of Bonnie, click here.
An upper level low now in the western Gulf of Mexico will be moving into Texas tomorrow. This combined with the moisture from Bonnie headed our way will bring rain to the area through Wednesday.
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*Updated 10:33 a.m. Saturday* What's left of Bonnie is headed for Louisiana. The storm is expected to make landfall tonight, and isn't expected to do much damage. The storm should bring 1-2 inches of rain for coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi, and other than minor street flooding no damage is expected as Bonnie moves ashore.
The wind shear caused by the upper level low in the Western Gulf really took its toll on Bonnie. Winds that suddenly change directions disrupts the air flow to the storm and will often weaken it.
Winds are down to 30 mph, so gusty winds are expected as it moves ashore, but shouldn't make much of an impact.
Bonnie is on a collision course with the Gulf Oil Spill, but without a real storm surge expected, there's not a lot of worry about oil being pushed inland. The concern is that the well will have to be left unattended until the storm passes. There may be some good news, though. The increased wave action may help break up some of the larger slicks, which would help them evaporate more quickly. For more on what may happen with the spill, visit the video player at www.kbtx.com/hurricanes and click on "Hurricanes and the Gulf Oil Spill."
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*Updated 3:58 p.m. Friday* Bonnie has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Wind speeds have fallen to under 39 mph, and the storm is looking a bit pitiful at the moment. Wind shear and dry air have taken their toll on Bonnie, and with strong wind shear still present in the Gulf of Mexico, it's looking less likely that the storm will strengthen into anything more than maybe a very minimal Tropical Storm when it reemerges over the water.
An upper level low called a Tutt low is in the Gulf competing with Tropical Depression Bonnie. That low is resulting in more wind shear than usual in the Gulf, keeping Bonnie at bay. It will be moisture from Bonnie brought around by that upper low that will be giving us the best rain chances early next week.
What circulation is left of Tropical Depression Bonnie
There is still one little area of circulation holding on with this storm, so we can't completely rule out strengthening, but it's looking more and more likely that Bonnie won't be around much longer.
Either way, expect a lot of moisture to move in late in the weekend, bringing up our rain chances and keeping very hot and humid afternoons in the forecast.
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*Updated 2:31 p.m. Friday* Tropical Storm Bonnie is looking a bit less organized now that it has moved over land, and with wind shear in the Gulf, there is a chance it may fall apart altogether. The official forecast is still calling for some strengthening, but there is the chance that it won't be around much longer and become a tropical wave. As of 2 p.m., winds were still around 40 mph, but only in a few locations in the storm.
If the storm does hold together, it should continue to move toward the West-Northwest until it curves further North making landfall along the Louisiana coastline on Sunday.
Either way, our forecast will be impacted in much the same way. We're not expecting a direct impact so much as a slug of moisture moving into the Brazos Valley that will bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms starting this weekend.
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*Updated 11:08 a.m. Friday* Tropical Storm Bonnie is now located over Biscayne Bay near Florida, with much of the weather from the system having already moved ashore. Bonnie is still packing winds of 40 mph, with higher gusts reported.
The Tropical Storm Watch that was issued for much of the Gulf coast has now been upgraded to a Warning. This includes the Gulf coast from Morgan City, LA to Destin, FL. Bonnie is still on track to make landfall along the Louisiana coast Sunday. While this is the expected site of the center of the storm, tropical storm force winds extend over 80 miles from the center.
The hardest hit areas will be those to the Northeast of the center of Bonnie when the storm makes landfall. This area will see the strongest winds, the highest storm surge, likely the heaviest rainfall, and the most tornadoes as the storm moves ashore. Storm surges of 3-5 are expected when the storm moves ashore in the Gulf, and several inches of rain over a short period of time will likely lead to some flooding along coastal areas.
Dry air moving into the center of the storm as well as environmental wind shear are keeping Bonnie from strengthening. As the storm moves over land, it will likely weaken somewhat, then restrengthen as it moves back into warm Gulf waters. At this point, winds are not expected to blow more than 50-60 mph, keeping the storm well away from Hurricane status.
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*Updated 7:53 a.m. Friday* Tropical Storm Bonnie hasn't strengthened since this morning, and isn't expected to strengthen before brushing the coast of Southern Florida later today. Rain bands have already pushed ashore ahead of the storm, which should make landfall this afternoon then continue into the Gulf of Mexico and proceed on its West-Northwest track for the next couple of days.
High pressure over the Southeastern United States is the primary driving force behind Tropical Storm Bonnie. This high should continue to steer the storm in its current direction, but then curve Bonnie more to the North, likely taking the storm into the Louisiana coastline. The storm may interact with the oil spill before moving inland. For more on what may happen with this, visit the video player at www.kbtx.com/hurricanes and click on "Hurricanes and the Gulf Oil Spill."
Up to five inches of rain can be expected in parts of Florida before the storm moves into the Gulf, and it's likely there will be some flooding as a result of Bonnie in Louisiana as well. How much rain we get here is still highly dependent on Bonnie's track. The further West the storm heads, the more rainfall and gusty winds we'll see in the Brazos Valley.
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Winds of 30 mph have already been reported in Ft. Lauderdale, with the center of the storm expected to skirt just South of Miami. Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for southern parts of Florida and the Bahamas. The storm is currently situated about 150 miles SE of Miami. As the storm passes over land, it may weaken, potentially into a depression before reemerging in the Gulf. Wind shear in the area will also inhibit Bonnie from strengthening, and it's possible that the storm could fall apart entirely. At this point though, the models keep the system as a Tropical Storm, and have it making landfall along Louisiana.
Tropical Storm force winds extend 85 miles from the center.
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*Updated 8:40 p.m.* Tropical Depression 3 has become Tropical Storm Bonnie. Winds are currently at 40 mph, and tropical storm force winds are extending 45 miles from the center of the storm. Good news for us is that the forecast track has been shifted further East, and it's more likely that Bonnie will make landfall along the Louisiana coastline late Sunday or early Monday.
An upper level low near the system is competing with the storm by moving dry air into the system, which certainly does not help a storm develop and strengthen, and there is still some wind shear in the area, which can tear a storm apart.
As long as the track stays to our East, we should see pretty minimal problems from Bonnie. The storm is expected to dump 2-4 inches of rain over Southern Florida, but isolated amounts of six inches are possible. Once moving into the Gulf, assuming the track remains with the current thinking, we may see up to three inches of rainfall in the Brazos Valley, but shouldn't have widespread flooding concerns or very strong winds.
Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for South Florida, including the Keys, and parts of the Bahamas. Bonnie is currently located at 23.1 N, 75.9 W moving Northwest at 14 mph.
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*Updated 3:34 p.m.* An Air Force Hurricane Hunter was sent to investigate the system over the Bahamas this afternoon and did not any significant developments from this morning. Tropical Depression 3 has not strengthened, and will remain a depression, at least for now. Some strengthening is possible tonight or tomorrow and the system could still become Tropical Storm Bonnie this week.
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*Updated 10:05 a.m.* Tropical Depression 3 has formed in the Caribbean. This system is now confirmed to have a closed circulation, which gives the system its Tropical Depression status.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is on its way now to investigate the system. Winds are estimated to be 35 mph, just shy of Tropical Storm Strength. With this system over warm waters it is possible that it will become Tropical Storm Bonnie later today. Wind shear in the area will likely keep the disturbance from strengthening to a hurricane. The system is moving West-Northwest at 15 mph and will likely begin to affect weather conditions in Florida on Friday.
Forecast path of Tropical Depression 3
With high pressure over the Southeastern United States, the tropical system will likely continue on a West-Northwesterly path. This could potentially move inland along the upper Texas coast or Louisiana, but it's still a long way out and projections can change significantly before Monday, when the system is at this point forecast to come ashore.
