*Updated 3:49 p.m. Saturday*  Tropical Storm Colin is barely holding on to Tropical Storm status.  Winds are barely above the minimum wind speed of 39 mph for a Tropical Storm.  However, with warm water and the fact that the storm is moving toward an area with very litte wind shear, some strengthening can be expected over the next day or so.

The storm did slow down overnight, delaying landfall in Bermuda, and should be expected to reach the island late tonight or early tomorrow morning with wind speeds projected at landfall between 40-50 mph.

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*Updated 3:00 p.m. Friday*  Colin remains over an area of strong wind shear that's causing the storm to become more and more disorganized.  Maximum wind speeds are hovering around 45 mph.  Colin is still classified as a Tropical Storm, but not a very strong one.  That's good news for Bermuda, where the storm is expected to make landfall tomorrow. 

Over the next couple of days, the storm will move into an environment with less wind shear, giving it yet another chance to restrengthen.  By then it will have passed the island, and will remain over open ocean waters as it continues to track toward the North. 

We've begun to watch another disturbance in the tropical Atlantic that has a reasonably good chance of development over the next couple of days.

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*Updated 9:39 a.m. Friday*  Increased wind shear has taken its toll on Tropical Storm Colin.  Overnight, winds decreased to around 45 mph.  The storm is still projected to move Northward, and should make landfall in Bermuda tomorrow, but with less fury than suspected last night. 

As it moves into an environment with less shear, it could restrengthen again, but likely not to the extent thought possible 12 hours ago.

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*Updated 8:15 p.m. Thursday*  Only hours after its rebirth as a Tropical Storm, Colin has already strengthened with winds now 60 mph.  Tropical Storm force winds now extend 105 miles from the center.  Tropical Storm Warnings are still in effect for Bermuda, and Tropical Storm Force winds are expected to hit the island on Saturday.

While the storm does have a more organized circulation, it fails to look terribly impressive on satellite.  However, with little shear to get in its way and an ample supply of warm water in the Atlantic, it could strengthen further, but should remain below Hurricane strength. 

The cold front along the East coast will prevent Colin from affecting the United States, and as the storm moves further North, it will be weakened as cooler water provides the storm with less energy.

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*Updated 4:10 p.m. Thursday*  After we had just about written off what was Tropical Storm Colin, it started to show some signs of organization early Thursday, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter was sent to investigate the area to find out if it had regained a closed circulation and how strong its winds had become.

That trip showed a closed circulation, which would have upgraded it to a Tropical Depression, but also that wind speeds had reached 45 mph, so it regained Tropical Storm status. 

Colin is still expected to remain off the coast of the US, and shouldn't affect the Eastern Seaboard thanks to a cold front extending from New York down through Tennessee and as the front progresses East, will keep the storm at sea. 

While not expected to impact the US, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Bermuda.

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*Updated 3:40 p.m. Tuesday*  Tropical Storm Colin is rapidly falling apart, and has become a remnant low, encountering stronger wind shear that has separated the circulation at the surface from the upper levels.  Any effects on the United States should be minimal: at best some showers along the East coast.

The storm is not expected to restrengthen as it moves Northwest, although the National Hurricane Center isn't ruling out the possiblity of the storm regenerating completely.  The storm is still over very warm ocean waters and while unlikely, wind shear alone won't always kill a storm off.

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Even though it is not very strong, not very large, and not terribly organized, Tropical Depression 4 has gained enough strength to become Tropical Storm Colin.  Winds are now up to 40 mph, just strong enough to be classified as a Tropical Storm.

Colin is expected to approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday.  Otherwise, the storm is not expected to impact land.  The storm is racing toward the West at 24 mph, gradually turning toward the Northwest over the next couple of days.  Some slow strengthening is expected, but only one model bringing the storm to Hurricane strength, so it's likely that the storm will remain classified as a Tropical Storm.  With vertical wind shear increasing after the next couple of days, it's unlikely that it will even strengthen much more than what we're seeing now.

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August and September are typically the most active months in the Tropical Atlantic, so it's no surprise that Tropical Depression Four has managed to organize.  The system has aquired a well defined circulation at the surface, and thus became a Tropical Depression Tuesday morning.  Maximum winds with this system are up to 35 mph, and with the depression over record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, it's likely that it will be upgraded to a Tropical Storm tonight or tomorrow.

High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic will steer the storm toward the Northwest.  Even the models that want to move the system further West do not bring the storm into the Gulf, and it's very likely that what may become Tropical Storm Colin will remain over the ocean.  Some Caribbean Islands could see thunderstorms and gusty winds, but it's unlikely that the most intense portions of the storm will affect land.

At the moment, wind shear is not strong enough to keep the storm from strengthening, but after the next couple days, the system will be moving into an environment with higher shear which may weaken the storm, so it's unlikely that the system will reach hurricane status.