Chilly nights, warm sunny days...not a bad fall pattern for the Brazos Valley starting this past weekend and lasting into a good chunk of your work week. So as high pressure dominates the short term forecast...we are looking ahead and watching the potential for change down the road...possibly big time, soggy change.
Before we jump in...as with any forecast the farther you look ahead the more uncertainty you'll get, especially with tropical systems. Our long range models are trying to form some sort of low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico for the upcoming weekend. At the same time, an upper-level weather system is scheduled to dive down from the Pacific Northwest en route to bring us our next significant cold front. If you take the data from today, the computer's want to bring our possible strong low pressure system, or maybe even a weak sub-tropical system, onto the Gulf Coast by Tuesday...just about the time our cold front is working into North Texas. Therefore, its not out of the question that a lot of tropical moisture, rain and wind is headed towards the Brazos Valley by Tuesday / Wednesday of next week. Then once that cooler, drier air crashes into the area, more heavy rain and possibly even a taste of some severe weather is possible mid-week.
So again, our chances at this point seem pretty uncertain just because the forecast is undoubtedly going to change and be fine-tuned many times over this next week. And what about a late season tropical development? Well, shear in the Gulf looks to be pretty strong so we'll have to wait and see how conditions are, but at this point it does not look to likely...but could still leave us with a ton of tropical moisture to work with once that front does arrive. Its all a timing game...and more importantly when its left in the hands of Mother Nature anything can happen. Either way, for sure some exciting trends to monitor over the next week that only time can tell. We'll shoot another update later this week when that crystal ball become a little clearer.
Until then, enjoy these beautiful, sunny days!