Our much anticipated cold front is pushing south this morning, already sparking up showers and thunderstorms through Southern Kansas, Oklahoma and North Texas.  In fact, in southern Oklahoma this morning, winds close to 70mph and hail up to half dollar size have already been reported...with one storm being held responsible for knocking down a barn near Norman, Oklahoma.

 

The Brazos Valley along with most of North and East Texas remain under a slight risk for severe weather today.  For all the folks set to travel today for Easter Weekend, the biggest and best risk of severe weather will be in East Texas, especially in the area of the Arklatex later this afternoon.  Main threats there:  large hail, damaging winds and the small possibility of a tornado.

 

 For us here at home--It looks like the best shot at seeing showers and thunderstorms rolling through will fall between the noon and 5pm time frame.  For Bryan/College Station and points directly northeast and southwest, that window should be between 2 and 4 this afternoon.  There are a few things working against us, in terms of the atmosphere being able to support thunderstorm activity, however, with some sun peeking through the clouds this morning and an increase in daytime heating, showers and storms are in no way out of the question. 

 

We are on the small end of the slight risk for severe weather today...but *small* risk does not mean *no* risk.  Should we find severe weather in our backyard later today, main threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and possible heavy downpours.  I also want to point out that many folks are off this Good Friday and lots of outdoor activities are planned (lots of folks planning crawfish boils today).  That being said, even if a storm is not severe as it rolls through, cloud-to-ground lightning is always a concern, so make sure to head indoors if you see a storm and hear thunder rolling your way off in the distance.

 

Otherwise, we'll keep an eye on this line of showers and storms moving in from the west...you can always check the latest radar right here at KBTX.com and if need be, we'll update you should storms really get going later this afternoon.

 

Well its true, all good weather must come to a brief end sometime...and that sometime, this round, looks to fall on Good Friday.  For the rest of this week, strong south winds will continue and, at times, gust 25-30mph.  While these winds are aiding in bringing some of the warmest afternoons the Brazos Valley has seen since October, it also adds moisture to the atmosphere...which when combined with drier, cooler air behind a cold front can lead to showers and thunderstorms developing.  

 

As of Thursday morning, the timing of the cold front pushing into the Brazos Valley...and the best chance of showers and thunderstorms...looks to be heading into Friday afternoon and lasting until just before midnight.  Right now, the forecast calls for a 50% shot at seeing activity in our backyard.  From this mornings vantage point, a line of showers and storms could push in between 3pm and 5pm along the inital windshift (psuedo dryline) with another weak line of showers and possible storms between 8pm and 11pm with the actual cold front itself.

 

The good folks at the Storm Prediction Center have placed most of the Brazos Valley under a "slight risk" for severe weather on Friday in their "Day 1 Outlook."  Basically, everywhere you see shaded in green (to the left) has a chance at strong to severe thunderstorms.  That being said, the better chance of severe weather (large hail, high winds and even tornadoes) seems to be in North and NortheastTexas.  For our area, there are few limiting factors looming overhead...which means the severe threat does not seem as likely...but still exists. 

 

However, that being said, a strong storm or two is still not out of the question with the main threats being large hail, strong damaging winds, and that always dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.   

 

So, of course, we'll continue to watch the potential for showers and thunderstorms late Friday and very early Saturday.  The best news of this scenario is that most of the threatening weather is looking to be an overnight event...so no need to cancel those three-day weekend plans!  Check back through the day and tomorrow for an update and the latest on our storms timing and potential.

 

On a side note, our long range computer models are starting to show hints that an isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm could fire up in the heat of the day on Easter Sunday.  Now before you start calling off any Easter egg hunts, we only have a 20% shot in the forecast and it looks like you'll have to be pretty unlucky to find yourself under some rain.  Otherwise, as the sun breaks the horizon at 7:11am Easter Sunday morning, things look pleasant with a few clouds painted across the sky!