It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas....errrr....spring time, every where you go. Take a look in the five and ten, where the thermometer is reading 80°. There's candy canes and air conditioners all aglow.
Ok...so it's not my best re-write of "Its Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas" but I was in a pinch. We are now into the third day in December and we are looking for yet another afternoon with 80° temperatures (which, by the way, are a good 15° to 20° warmer than we are supposed to be this time of the year!)
Next Cold Front is On the Way
Good news is that we have a cold front scheduled to move into the Brazos Valley tomorrow afternoon / evening. More good news is that it will erase the 80s for *at least* a few days. The bad news is that it won't bring down a big push of cold Canadian air as fronts normally do this time of the year. Instead, we'll find temperatures falling into the 50s at night (still 10° above normal for low) and low to mid 70s for highs (roughly 5° to 10° warmer than the normal) by Wednesday and Thursday. At this point, though, beggars can't be choosers.
Rain? We Sure Could Use Some!
This isn't going to be the front that provides a huge chance for rain. Southwesterly winds will take over ahead of this cold front adding a "cap" to the atmosphere. Essentially, picture a giant lid on the atmosphere that needs to be pried off in order to let thunderstorms form. The front will try to be that lift -- but rain chances are looking pretty weak for our neck of the woods. We'll keep a 20% (maaaaybe 30%) chance for a few isolated showers / thunderstorms tomorrow with the front's arrival...but at this time, nothing overly impressive is there to suggest we will get a much needed soaking.
Pattern Change / December Air Breaks Free
The extended forecast does hold some hope to get more late fall / winter time temperatures into Texas. In fact, there are a couple of strong cold fronts, that could break-free bitter cold air from Alaska and Canada, in the long range forecast.
The first front looks like it could come as early as one week from today (Monday) and possibly even bring snow to the Panhandle and parts of the Southern High Plains.
The second front is something to take with a grain of salt since the computer models aren't hinting at it until around the 18th of this month. The first picture below is from the 0z run of the GFS which tried to bring a solution of SNOW to parts of the Brazos Valley by that time. Don't get excited...snow doesn't look like a reasonable solution. In fact, the 12z run of that same GFS model still brings in a stiff cold front, but this time doesn't make any mention of moisture and cold air lining up to bring in any of the white stuff.
We'll be watching it all as extended forecasts this far out are always changing with each model run. While snow isn't likely, the fact that the computers are actually depicting that cold of an air mass is reassuring that eventually there may be a holiday feel in the air here at home in the near future.