Ahhhhh....these past couple of days have been great to walk about to. Cool mornings, mild afternoons, sunshine -- the whole nine yards. So great that you probably heard this in your head as you walked outside:
then you walk outside today and that feeling gets stopped short like this:
Feeling Summer-ish Once Again
Southerly winds have returned to the area, and today they are blowing through breezy at 10 to 15mph sustained along with wind gusts upwards of 20mph at times. That will help nudge afternoon highs into the upper 80s (Northeastern Counties) and low 90s (Central and Western Counties) across the Brazos Valley. Not to mention the scattered clouds that are expected this afternoon along with a slight humid feeling returning.
One look at this map across the region and you'll notice that there's something big in the works...and that something big is the blast of Fall we've been talking about for the past several days now.
Cold Front's A'Comin'
That much advertised cold front has already taken over the Texas Panhandle and will keep highs there only in the 60s as we finish out this Thursday. For as strong as that front is, the upper level support driving it south is pretty far north -- meaning it is going to lose forward progression for the next 24 to 48 hours.
Tomorrow, afternoon highs will be back in the mid-70s for Lubbock (behind the front today and expected to only reach the 60s) while the cool air stays locked up between the I-40 corridor from Amarillo to Oklahoma City and points south along the Red River. (The Brazos Valley will once again top off in the low 90s -- so keep holding on...)
By Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning, that front takes action again and will sweep through the state towards our backyard. The latest data suggests that northerly winds will shift shortly after midnight, followed by the colder air a handful of hours later. We are expecting highs to top off right around 80° (give 5° or so for those farther south and take 5° to 10° for those to the north of Bryan / College Station) before falling as cooler air spills into the region. Temperatures are likely to be back down into the upper 60s and low 70s by Saturday afternoon -- and then continue to tumble into the upper 40s to low 50s by daybreak Sunday morning. While it isn't horribly likely, it isn't out of the question that a light shower or drizzle may swing in behind the cooler air coming with this front (20% chance).
The Front is Here -- Now What?
Sunday looks to be a mostly cloudy, breezy to gusty and much much much cooler of a day. Highs will struggle to make the upper 60s to low 70s area-wide -- and will only feel like the mid to upper 60s due to that chilly north wind. Grab a long sleeve and enjoy this good taste of Fall.
By Monday, southerly winds will take back over and the jetstream will once again kink into a more "zonal flow" (running west to east). South winds warm afternoon highs back into the upper 70s and low 80s to start the week, mid-80s by Tuesday and then mid-to-upper 80s by Wednesday. While it would be nice for the cooler weather to stick around, the warmer air isn't so bad either -- rain chances will increase as another weak cold front approaches us by Wednesday afternoon (30% chance for now).