Don't get me wrong -- it was a chilly morning.  By all means, it should be.  This is January.  And I'll say it again, don't get me wrong -- topping out in the 70s on Wednesday and this mild stretch of afternoons we have been experiencing has been great.  

We need a little excitement around here, weather-wise....and we just may get it.

La Nina Showing Up

Speaking of mild...remember when we told you that the drought would most likely continue and barring a few snaps of cold, we really would be on the warmer end of a Texas winter? Well, it is forecasts like these for the next couple of days that we are talking about.  And not just for Texas, but a good chunk of the Continental United States as well.  Many many many record highs are looking to fall today as highs top off in the 50s and 60s as far north as the US / Canadian border.  50s and 60s don't sound horrible by any means, but sub-zero temperatures are not uncommon for this time of the year up north -- this warm batch of weather is welcomed but interesting.

Why We'll be on the Warmer Side

A broad area of low pressure is spinning over Mexico and slowly chugging it's way eastward towards West Texas.  Our moisture supply is lacking -- so rain chances look nil to non-existent (although a few sprinkles here and there are not out of the question completely). Scattered clouds, a good amount of sunshine, breezy conditions on Friday causing highs to reach the low 70s to wrap up the week are expected as this system passes us by.

Soaking Rains on Tap for Monday?

At this point, you could start placing your bets...but it is still not a done deal.

 A slow moving upper-level trough will drop south and start crawling right around the Panhandle bySunday.  With this weather maker ever so slowly drifting east our rain chances will come up starting early Monday morning.  Should everything hold relatively similar to what our extended computer models were showing this morning, here's the break down of how our rain would come together: 

• Warm front slowly moves in from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing overcast skies and a chance at light showers as it overrides cooler air here at the surface.
• Cool air is added as a cold front drops in from the north keeping highs in the mid-to-upper 50s 
• Upper-level low keeps southerly winds overriding the cool as long as it is west of the Brazos Valley -- which in turn keeps the rain chances on.
• Likely period of clouds & lack of rain as slightly drier air works in from the southwest (on the underside of the low) 
• Light scattered showers & overcast conditions continue on Tuesday as we experience "wrap around" moisture on the back side of the low as it continues to move east

Again...the small changes in the exact track and evolution of this system could be the difference between a good, soaking rain or a big let down.  We'll continue watching as we get closer -- but for now it is something worth getting a little excited over.