Monday Morning Update: 

Tropical Storm Ernesto:

Ernesto looks healthy this morning with deep convection continuing to develop with in the the Caribbean.  If you are getting caught up from the weekend, there has been more model agreement with the path this storm will take -- all of which suggests that Ernesto will remain a Tropical Storm and will likely not be an issue for any United States coastline.  

 

With high pressure staying strong in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere, Ernesto will run north towards and over the Yucatan Peninsula, move back into the Bay of Campeche for a short period and then likely will make landfall in the western to southwestern portion of Mexico.  We'll continue to monitor development for any changes -- however, it looks like we will be watching this storm from a very far distance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Depression Florence:

For a storm that developed so quickly last Friday, it has also fallen apart just as quick.  Florence has pulled in drier air along with desert dust which has all but quieted the storm.  Because of unfavorable conditions with the moisture supply in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere, Florence is forecasted to remain a depression at best.  As of this morning, there was only one small burst of new convection associated with this Tropical Depression.

 

 

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Sunday Evening Update:

Tropical Storm Ernesto:

Ernesto is still having some trouble staying organized. Most of the deep convection is well away from the center. There has been an abundance of dry air in the low to mid levels that has been hindering the development. It still seems that within the next day or so some strengthening should take place. He currently is located at 15.3N and 78.6W. He has a sustained wind speed near 50mph and is moving west at 20mph.

 

 

Tropical Storm Florence:

Florence has started to fall apart through the day with little to no convection left near the center. The wind speed has noticeably dropped to 50mph. Most models try to keep Florence alive for the next several days but it looks like she will become a remnant low by day 3 if she continues in her weakening trend. Currently she is located at 16.3N, 96.7W and moving west at 14mph. 

 

 

 

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Sunday Morning Update:

Tropical Storm Ernesto:

Over the past 6-12 hours Ernesto has lost some of his strength. His convective activity has decreased considerably. The last runs show that he is still a bit disorganized as he continues to move in a westward direction at 22mph. There is still a possibility he will gain strength once he hits the warmer waters of the gulf. He currently has sustained winds near 50mph and is located at 15.0N and 76.0W.

Tropical Storm Florence:

Florence has stopped strengthening for now but is holding together. She currently has sustained winds near 60mph and is moving WNW near 15mph. She is expected to gain strength within the next day or so. Her current coordinates are 16.6N and 34.2W.

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Saturday Afternoon Update:

Tropical Storm Ernesto:

Not much has changed since the last update when it comes to the strength of Ernesto. He still looks to be on a solid path into the Gulf of Mexico where there are warmer waters allowing for him to gain strength. The models indicate he could increase in intensity being upgraded to the title of Hurricane Ernesto within the next 48 hours. He is expected to be South of Jamaica by Sunday afternoon.  

 

Tropical Storm Florence:

Florence has gained a little strength through the day seeing max winds increase to 50mph. At this time tropical force winds extend to 70 miles outward. It looks as though she will continue to gain some strength over the next 48 hours.

 

 

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Saturday Morning Update: 

Tropical Storm Ernesto:

Still our more pressing storm as this continues to look likely to travel into the Gulf of Mexico, late in the coming week.  Not much change with Ernesto this morning -- satellite imagery shows some slight intensification overnight, but the current compromise between different computer models is to slowly grow this tropical storm into a Category 1 Hurricane after the weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*New* Tropical Storm Florence:

What a storm.  From being just a cluster of showers and thunderstorms two days ago to a Tropical Depression last night and now officially Tropical Storm Florence this morning.  Florence will likely remain a Tropical Storm through the weekend, however as this system continues to chug to the west, it looks to move into a less favorable environment for growth -- which could still weaken it back down back to a tropical depression for a bit.  Lots of real estate to cover with Florence but trends may suggest this system remain more of an East Coast threat rather than a Gulf threat.  Still too far out for any type of speculation so we'll keep Florence in the back of our minds for now while we track Ernesto with a bit more attention.

 

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10pm Friday Evening Update: 

That tropical wave we've been watching explode just off the west coast of Africa has officially been named Tropical Depression Six by the National Hurricane Center.  This system will continue to develop and could become Tropical Storm Florence in the next 24 hours.  You'll notice in the official forecast, this system is slated to return to depression status in a few days.  Environmental conditions are not as great two to three days down the road, along with the fact that Atlantic waters in it's path have recently been overturned by Ernesto (seeing as how the two systems are taking a similar path).

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8pm Friday Evening Update:

Here are your quick specs on Tropical Storm Ernesto this evening: (note the big ball of convection that has formed in just a few hours (compared to the picture below posted around 5:30 this evening):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also important to note that a tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa has really blown up and strengthened today.  The National Hurricane Center has a 70% chance for development over the next 48 hours (if this system were to form it would be named Florence):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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 Friday Evening Update

Lots of question surrounding Tropical Storm Ernesto and the future of this tropical system.  As of this afternoon, there was some re-development and deeper convection taking place on the west side of Ernesto's circulation.  The official forecast for Ernesto is to remain a tropical storm through most of the weekend since there is drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere and a decent amount of wind shear as well.  We'll have a better understanding of the winds inside the storm after a Hurricane Hunter reports back later this evening.

Questions surrounding Ernesto -- we'll start with if this system will actually remain a storm or not.  The current thinking is yes -- however, some reliable computer models are bringing the intensity of the storm up and turning it into a hurricane (as shown in the official National Hurricane Center forecast) and two other very reliable computer models have the storm dissipating before making it to the Gulf of Mexico. 

The Gulf itself provides the next question.  Movement to the west / northwest through the Caribbean is fairly certain, but once the storm moves near the Yucatan Peninsula computer guidance is spread from one side of the Gulf to the other.  Once these models can get a better handle on how strong the ridge over the Desert Southwest will be by the end of next week , we should have a better understanding as to which direction Ernesto will head.  Details that probably will take until after the weekend to become somewhat more clear.

 

 

 

 

 

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Friday Morning Update

 Tropical Storm Ernesto hasn't become any more organized in the last 24 hours but is expected to get his act together within the next 48 hour span. As of now his max wind gust recorded was 63mph near the center when he traveled near St. Lucia. He has a sustained max wind speed near 45 mph and is moving west at 24mph. At this time tropical storm force winds reach outward up to 115 miles. Although not well organized he has the potential to gain strength. Especially if he can find his way into the warmer waters of the gulf where there is more energy to develop. It will be at least Tuesday before that might be a possibility.

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Thursday Evening Update 

Here's the latest on Tropical Storm Ernesto:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thursday Afternoon Update -- Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this mornings tropical depression to Tropical Storm Ernesto as of late this afternoon.  

 

While the storm is looking a bit ragged, Hurricane Hunters flew into the storm earlier today and found winds up to 51kts -- strong and steady enough to classify this system as a tropical Storm.  While this storm has been upgraded, a good amount of wind shear will continue to impact Ernesto keeping the intensification forecast low (meaning that Ernesto should remain a tropical storm over the next couple of days).  

As for the forecast, not much of a change as Ernesto is expected to continue on a west to northwest path.  Towards the end of the forecast period, it is possible that we could have Category 1 Hurricane Ernesto as the storm advances past Jamaica -- which could be around next Monday or Tuesday.  From there we still anticipate a movement into the Gulf of Mexico where we will have to watch things very closely.  No need for alarm right now -- and this is only as a side note -- but the GFS has had solutions of a landfall anywhere from Houston to Brownsville between different model runs today.  Again, nothing to take to heart just yet, but that is why we will be monitoring developments closely.

 

 

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Thursday Morning Update

Tropical Depression Five is still chugging along through the Western Atlantic -- currently sitting at 13.0N 54.3W (for those plotting along at home on your 2012 Hurricane Tracking Chart).

While this system looked healthy on Wednesday afternoon, it encountered some upper level wind shear last night which begin to rip the storm apart a bit.  There is some sign of shower and thunderstorm redevelopment this morning -- however, as you'll see in the latest forecast "cone of uncertainty" that wind shear will likely keep TD Five from developing into a tropical storm for another day or more.  Good news is -- through Tuesday, the official National Hurricane Center forecast only has TD Five strengthening into a tropical storm (although, that is subject to change many times between now and then). You'll also note that computer models have taken a change this morning and bring this system into the Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday - Thursday time frame.  Still too early to speculate where this system will go once it leaves the Caribbean -- however, still something that needs to be monitored over the next week. Here's the latest:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It has been a pretty quiet summer, in regards to hurricane season -- however, signs of life are starting to show up once again as we turn the calendar to the month of August.

Tropical Depression Five

Mid-afternoon Wednesday, The National Hurricane Center took a disturbance in the Atlantic with a 70% chance of development in 48 hours or less and found reason to turn it into Tropical Depression Five. According to their official discussion, "the system [had] acquired sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical depression."  While this is a depression now, there is enough evidence in computer models and current strength of the system to believe that this could become our next named storm, Ernesto, by as early as Thursday morning.  

 

Where Does It Go From Here / Why Should You Care

The first forecast put out by The National Hurricane Center (the cone of uncertainty) follows most of our tropical and long term models by gunning TD 5 toward the Caribbean.  As of now, parts of Haiti and The Dominican Republic fall within the cone of uncertainty -- while Jamaica looks to have the biggest impact (as for now) with this system possibly beefing up to a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the island on Monday. 

While there is no immediate threat to the Texas Coast line, a lot can and will change between now and the end of next week (when this system is expected to possibly reach the southern Gulf of Mexico).  For now, this will be a "keep a watchful eye" type situation.  Updates can be found on this blog daily along with the latest in our Hurricane Center.

Below is the forecast cone as of Wednesday night.  The image below shows how that cone is determined -- each line you see in the picture represents a different computer model's solution for what may happen with our latest tropical system.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Track the Tropics At Home

Want to keep up with TD Five / possible Ernesto? Be sure to snag your 2012 Hurricane Tracking Chart.  They can be picked up at any Bryan / College Station H-E-B or Batteries Plus location.  For those that are out of town, you can download and print the same tracking chart to use as well.