Low pressure is sitting over North Mexico this morning and scheduled to make a move towards Texas by this afternoon. As this area of disturbed weather slides through the state on Wednesday, shower and thunderstorm activity should increase -- including here in the Brazos Valley.
Grab An Umbrella --
While rain isn't forecasted to stick around all day long, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will likely roam the area Wednesday. Here's the latest outlook from the PinPoint Computer Forecast Model:
In terms of how much rain may fall, that depends on if you are lucky (or unlucky) to catch a stronger thunderstorm over your backyard. Overall outlook is anywhere between 0.25" and 0.50" of rain is possible in parts of the Brazos Valley. That being said, there will be the chance that patchy areas of higher totals are possible and spotty areas of only a few hundreths of an inch of rain will be possible as well.
Here's the accumulated rainfall forecast courtesy of the morning run of our PinPoint Computer Forecast Model:
Here's a similar (less defined) outlook issued by the HPC:
More Rain Possible Wednesday Night / Early Thursday?
Some of our modeling is picking up on that possibility. Below are forecast radar images for Wednesday evening from the Penn State NAM 4km and the Texas Tech WRF 3km. Both of these hi-res models pick up on a second complex of rain and thunderstorms dropping south through the Brazos Valley:
We'll keep rain chances at a 50% chance on Wednesday during the day and then continue with a 40% shot at another round of activity during the evening / early morning hours of Thursday.
What About Severe Weather?
At this point, we aren't overly concerned with a severe potential on Wednesday. Yes, there could be a few strong thunderstorms that bring gusty winds in excess of 35mph, small hail (less than the size of quarters), heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes.
Overall, it looks like the better bet for a few severe thunderstorms will stay just to the west and northwest of the Brazos Valley (area below noted by "See Text" in the Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 Outlook)
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