Wednesday Evening Update
Sorry for the later than normal update -- switching shifts up a bit and filling in for Bob French in the evenings over the next couple of days. Despite the shift, rain chances continue to look healthy as we head into the weekend.
Computer models (mainly the GFS) paint in between 1/2" to 1" of rain possible for the Brazos Valley on Saturday. Heaviest of the rain in Texas is likely to stay west of I-35, with multiple model runs pinning down the Hill Country to get the heaviest drink of water.
Any bit of rain (despite football games or not) will be a welcomed sight to the area. The National Weather Service released stats for September (thus far) and with only 0.53" of rain falling this month, we are on track for going down as the 7th DRIEST September on record.
As of this evening, we'll call for a 30% chance of scattered rain Friday afternoon and evening followed by a 50% chance of scattered showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms on Saturday (still staying a bit on the conservative side for now). Here's a look at select times over a Friday to Sunday time period:
Friday Early Evening
Saturday Midday (Near Kick-off at Kyle Field for the Aggies vs. Razorbacks):
Sunday (Drier and Cooler Airmass Moving In):
Tuesday Morning Update
When you look at the big picture, 2012 is still in a surplus for rain with 32.06" falling since January 1st -- which puts us ahead of the "normal" by 3.98". That's all good and well, until you start hitting strings of 100°+ day and only a few days here and there with isolated rain popping up over your backyard (as we did this summer).
So that all being said -- it's no secret that we could use a little bit of rain. The question is, will you take it at the expense of a chance of getting soggy during not only Friday night football games but possibly even at Kyle Field as the Ags host the Arkansas Razorbacks?
Lets dive into changes that will eventually get us to our weekend rain chance...(chance being the key word here)
Find your Kite -- I'll Be Breezy
Not saying anything earth shattering here -- you need the atmosphere to get nice and moist if you are going to see any sort of rain. While the dry, non-humid feel over the past several days has been great, we'll need to add to the humdity in order to prime things for rain chances. And that's exactly what we'll do today and Wednesday.
A southerly breeze blows through sustained at 10-15mph and will occasionally gust upwards of 20-25mph at times. While it is a moist wind that will increase the dewpoint steadily over the next 48 hours, it'll also create a bit of an Elevated Fire Danger with the dry vegetation spread out over the Brazos Valley. Main thing is if you had outdoor burning plans scheduled for today or Wednesday, it'll be best to re-think that until Thursday when wind speeds will slow back to 5-10mph.
Low-Level Moisture is Covered, Now Let's Work on The Upper-Levels, eh?
Hurricane Miriam (Category 2 strength) is churning in the Pacific off the West Coast of Mexico and will eventually move towards the Baja Region and weaken. As that happens, some over that high-level, Pacific Moisture will feed off of Miriam and get pulled through a southwesterly flow over Mexico and into Texas.
By Thursday, expect to see this moisture start to move in as the skies turn mostly cloudy, with mainly high-level overcast. Now that both upper and lower level moisture has been secured...let's try and get a bit of rain to fall...
Add in a Weak Cold Front
A cold front, pushed in by an upper-level system across the northern portion of the country, will slowly start to sag it's way into Texas late in the week and on into the weekend. As it gets closer, lift will be added to the atmosphere which will try to make good use of that available moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (at the lower levels) and the Pacific Ocean (in the upper levels).
Rain chances will be on the scattered side by Friday afternoon / evening (30%) followed by a slightly better shot at more organized activity (40%) with a pre-frontal boundary pushing into the area -- likely early Saturday. A few scattered to isolated showers or thunderstorms could remain as we head into Sunday -- that is until a cold front finally pushes through and once again dries out the atmosphere by moving in 60° dewpoints in.
For now we'll say this: there could be a few heavy downpours and possibly even an isolated strong thunderstorm or two that could produce always dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. That being said, if you have plans to head out Friday night (especially to area football games) or if you have tickets to get into Kyle Field on Saturday....KEEP YOUR PLANS.
This is an interesting forecast and can still change a bit on timing and intensity of the rain. We need the rain and we can always use a little football in our lives -- however, some of us may be sitting through a few gray and damp games as we jump into this weekend.
More details and fine tuning on the forecast to come with later blog updates through the week.