To steal a line out of our old friends Winnie the Pooh and Christopher Robin, "Tut-Tut, It looks like rain!" Rain that is still greatly needed here in the Brazos Valley...and a good chance for it comes over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Get Outside Today
Have an itch to be outdoors? Who could blame you with the beautiful weather we have on hand today. Mostly sunny skies, highs right up around 70° and a light north to northeast breeze. Great, right? Welp, if you need some 1-on-1 time with Mother Nature do it today, because rain chances kick in as early as Tuesday afternoon.
Grab the Umbrella
Today's cold front is a nice treat, but southerly winds and the approach of our next upper level system will cause it to turn right around and retreat as a warm front. As that warm front pushes through the area, we'll up our rain chances to a 50% shot, especially Tuesday afternoon. If you miss out on the rain tomorrow -- no worries, more rain is in the forecast as this system slowly pushes from the Big Bend region right over the Brazos Valley. By the time you wake up on Wednesday morning, we'll increase our rain chances to an 80% shot.
With ample moisture to work with, some of our computer models are predicting the possibility of big rains for the area. (Notice the word possible). How big? How about 1" to 3" of rain possible for the entire area, with a few locations around Brazos, Grimes, Madison, Walker, Houston and Trinity Counties to receive 3" to 5" inches of rain by Wednesday night. While that drink of water will be great, there may be some issues with a few areas collecting water that could cause some flash flooding -- something we will have to be aware of. (But again, that is if everything plays out exactly as it looks on paper)
One other risk to be on alert for is the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. While the risk isn't exceptionally high -- there is the chance that a few storms could bring damaging winds, large hail and maybe even a brief, isolated tornado threat. We'll fine tune the details on that as we get a few more computer model runs under our belt.
Below are the newest output images from our in-house model run aka the PinPoint Forecast.
A Different Kind of Storm
For an interesting side note on this Monday: The largest Solar Radiation Storm since May 2005 is headed towards our fair planet. For the life of me, I can talk about thunderstorms and fronts all day -- but space weather is WAY over my head. That being said, I'm still interested as all get out. Here are a couple of links that explain the current space weather, solar flares, electromagnetic storms etc etc.