It's now a waiting game -- and a hot one at that. We've been talking about a cold front for the weekend for a few days now -- admittedly a little more cautious at the beginning of the week as models were still likely to change...and now with more confidence -- and expect it to get here during the day on Saturday. While we wait...we bake...in these triple digit temperatures. If you can hold on for just a few more days, it looks like a small taste of Fall will be your reward.
Staying On The Toasty Side
With high pressure in place, afternoon temperatures will continue to top off near, at or a few degrees above the triple digit mark. In fact, this afternoon, highs are pretty much split between the 100°-102° mark (across Central and Northern Counties) and the upper 90s (in the Southern half of the area). The good news about high pressure sitting overhead this week is that the upper atmosphere has dried a bit over the past couple of days. That will translate into slightly lower (but still dangerous) afternoon heat index values. The downside to that silver lining -- that also means we won't have as great of a rain chance once our glorious cold front comes swooping in.
Speaking of a Cold Front...
The timing of this front could mean a lot for folks in the Brazos Valley this weekend. While we all are looking forward to the cooler weather, attitudes are split between those that want the rain (farmers, ranchers, gardeners, yardeners etc) and those that want a dry forecast (outdoor planners, tailgaters, fair & festival-goers etc). To both I say this: the timing of this front can still change over the next several model runs and the rain chances look to be on the slight end as of now...
For this mornings data, it looks like there will be a wind shift (from a south to southwest wind to a northerly wind) between lunchtime and mid-afternoon on Saturday. It's along that wind shift that we expect showers or an isolated thunderstorm to pop up, if at all. We'll hold a 30% chance...but from this morning's models, that may be a little too generous.
Once the wind shifts, showers and thunderstorms that do form will be moved to the south along that wind shift, followed up a few hours later by the actual drier and cooler air mass that is slated to move in and wrap up the weekend. Overall...nothing event canceling looks likely now -- however, there could be a thunderstorm that puts a damper on events for a short period of time Saturday afternoon.
Here's a look at the Florida / Alabama Coastline this morning. What you are looking at is a remnant of what was Hurricane Isaac -- not the remnant though. As of this 10am, the National Hurricane Center had a 20% chance of development into a tropical system, for this thunderstorm cluster, over the next 48 hours.
Should this activity become organized and turn into something significant it would be named Nadine (the next name in the 2012 list) and not Isaac. Why? For the full explanation head to the National Hurricane Center's Facebook Page -- but to keep it short, basically, Isaac's circulation actually weakened as it moved through the eastern side of the country. This area of circulation and thunderstorm activity formed new off the old area that was once a hurricane. Therefore it is "a remnant" of the storm rather than "the remnant"
Should the system develop or not, it isn't likely to impact the Gulf Coast much thanks to that same cold front we are looking ahead to give us the cool weather. Once that front continues south, it'll push the area of interest further south into the Gulf and flatten out any organization the system can muster up.