Grab an umbrella and keep it close for a few days -- rain chances are starting to come up as we draw closer to the end of the week. As a trough of low pressure drops south and east across the country, we'll open our window for a chance of rain this afternoon and keep it that way through Sunday.
Why the Soggy Outlook?
High pressure across the Eastern side of the country steered southeasterly winds back into the Brazos Valley yesterday and they'll continue to blow that direction over the next several days. That will effectively move all the moisture we shoved out of here, with this past Saturday's cold front, back inland. In fact, as I sit in the PinPoint Weather Center writing this post this morning, a few thunderstorms have pushed out of the Gulf and cruised as far inland as Montgomery County.
While we draw this moisture in, an upper-level trough of low pressure and associated cold front will continue to move southeast from the Pacific Northwest. Along that front this morning, showers and thunderstorms have continuously shown up on radar. While this front should make it to the Brazos Valley, it will be lacking most of the cool air that is currently locked up behind it. That being said, with one trough of low pressure swinging nearby on Friday and then another holding up in West Texas for a better part of the weekend, the best rain chance lies between Friday morning and Sunday morning.
Long story short: the wheels are in motion to add plenty of lift to the atmosphere starting on Thursday to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for a string of days.
How Will It Play Out?
It doesn't look like this will be a solid rain event, but rather periods of scattered showers from time to time Thursday through Sunday. The best chance of rain will come on Friday as the first of a series of weak cold fronts works into the area and Saturday as a trough of low pressure over Texas continues to keep an unsettled atmosphere above. Here's a break down of rain chances for each day (note that this is subject to change a bit as we tweak the forecast here and there):
PinPoint Computer Forecast for Thursday:
As for outdoor and weekend plans? No need to cancel or change due to the forecast (yet). Like I said, this will likely be batches of rain that move in and move out. Keep an umbrella or poncho for everyone involved and know that you may have to revert to a plan B while a shower or thunderstorm passes by.
Check back tomorrow (Thursday) for the latest forecast and PinPoint Computer Model to work out the timing of possible showers and thunderstorms.
Of course the latest can be found by keeping up on Twitter: @KBTXShel