Today might be a good time to find your umbrella and get any outdoor chores you may have on that to-do list done. Confidence is gaining on the possibility of a wide-spread rain event for not only the Brazos Valley but a majority of the State of Texas as well.
Strong Upper-Low Spinning Our Way
A large, and soon-to-be even more powerful, upper level storm system is dropping out of Southern California / the Desert Southwest towards Mexico tonight and then into the Western side of Texas Tuesday. That storm system is going to be the driving force behind finding a good (almost certain -- *knock on wood*) rain chance. Some of which may be locally heavy throughout Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.
A surface low will form on the eastern side of the mountains in Mexico, which will help lift a warm front to the north out of the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday -- enter rain chance #1. Light rain showers could fall from overcast skies as early as tonight, but the heavier and more likely rain chance doesn't seem to move in until after mid-morning tomorrow and especially into the afternoon when that front lifts into the Brazos Valley.
Rain chance # 2 comes with the actual upper-level system moving through Southwest to Central to Northern parts Texas during the day on Wednesday. That could drive a large complex or line of showers and thunderstorms into the Brazos Valley, moving from west to east throughout the day.
Severe Storms and Potential Flash Flooding
The biggest threat for hazardous weather comes mainly on Wednesday. As our upper-level system moves through the state with a slight negative tilt, that could produce thunderstorms that have the potential for strong damaging winds (especially if these storms take on a squall line appearance) or even an isolated tornado threat. The Storm Prediction Center has us placed under a "SLIGHT RISK" for Wednesday because of these threats.
As of now, no watches have been issued, but the National Weather Service office, that watches over a majority of the Brazos Valley, mentioned that a Flash Flood Watch could possibly be needed to cover this event. While widespread flooding isn't a major concern, should the rain fall as it looks like it may, that may lead to low-lying areas, creeks and ditches and those areas that normally have water issues when we experience big rain events to flood. Again, nothing is official as of Monday afternoon...but stay tuned and informed on the latest information over the next couple of days.
PinPoint Forecast - Monday Mid-morning Run
Here's the latest PinPoint Computer Model data on the potential for when and how rain and thunderstorms will move through the area:
Possible Rainfall Totals
Take this with a grain of salt for now, but the images below show the *possible* rain totals over the next couple of days.
PinPoint Computer Forecast Model - This is the outlook through Noon Wednesday. We expect higher totals in our eastern counties than are portrayed here as the computer hasn't pushed a bulk of the rain that direction until Wednesday afternoon.
General Outlook - If everything comes together as the computer models are portrayed, it isn't out of the question that a general 2 to 5 inches of rain could fall in the Brazos Valley by Thursday morning. There is the chance that isolated pockets of 5 to 7 inches could fall in our south and eastern counties.