For you warm weather fans -- drink it up while you can. After hitting 70° or better since last Sunday, it looks like the spring-ish temperatures are not long for this forecast (at least in the near term).
Approaching Upper-Level System
An upper-level trough of low pressure is swinging out of the Pacific and over the Southwestern United States today / tomorrow. By Tuesday afternoon / evening, this system should be in the western side of Texas and impacting our weather here in the Brazos Valley.
For today & Tuesday, we'll start to see the beginning of what this system has to offer. Breezy to gusty south to southeast winds are in store -- Monday 10-20mph with gusts to 25mph, Tuesday 15-25mph, with gusts upwards of 30-35mph -- along with mostly to partly cloudy sky and highs in the upper 70s.
The record high for Bryan / College Station today (January 28th) is 79° set back in 1982 and then tied on 2002. Our forecast high for today is 78° with a good chance of potentially tying or possibly even breaking that record by the end of the afternoon. It'll be a day to watch the thermometer...
Storm Chance Increases -- Some Possibly Severe
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Brazos Valley under a "SLIGHT RISK" for severe weather on Tuesday (area pictured in yellow)
While the Brazos Valley falls in this risk area, the bigger threat and best chance to see severe thunderstorms lies just to the north and east of our area. That being said, a few strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are not out of the question should thunderstorms manage to form along and / or ahead of our approaching cold front.
The latest PinPoint Forecast Guidance suggests that a line of thunderstorms will approach the Brazos Valley and then possibly fall apart to become a line of broken storms. If this were to happen, we could still be dealing with a strong wind threat. As thunderstorm fall apart and decay, they typically push out all the energy they once contained in the form of wind. Should these storms collapse with the loss of daytime heating, that could still result in stronger wind gusts even if we don't get the beneficial rain at the same time. Something to watch and monitor for Tuesday...
Best window for shower and thunderstorm activity on Tuesday: 3pm - 10pm
Back to Feeling Like January
After our cold front passes by Tuesday night / Wednesday morning, breezy to gusty north to northwest winds will take over and push back this warm & muggy air mass. Expect overnight lows to return to a chilly side of things -- 30s & 40s -- with highs rebounding close to normal -- mid-to-upper 60s. We should close out January and start February on a fairly typical note.