Back to the Basics of May:
After four mornings with record low temperatures (Friday through Monday), we are getting back to what we expect for the first part of May. Ample sunshine will help warm things up into the mid 80s the next few afternoons, and low temperatures will be back up into the 60s. Returning southerly winds will assist the warming trend and pump gulf moisture in our direction bringing higher humidity levels and an increase in clouds for the latter half of the work week.
Rain Chances Return:
The moisture increase will lead to some decent rain chances heading into the Mother's Day weekend. A series of upper level disturbances will move across Texas from the west this week, starting with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms in the Panhandle the next couple of days. We'll have enough available moisture for some showers on Thursday, but the better opportunity for rain will come Friday and Saturday as more energetic disturbances move across.
Good Soaking Rains Possible:
Computer models are generating rainfall amounts on the order of one to two inches across parts of South Texas for the Friday through Saturday time period. Those totals are likely to be spotty because of the scattered nature of the showers and thunderstorms that we expect. However, one more ingredient could help give us a bit more widespread rainfall. A cold front is also forecast to ease into the region on Saturday. It's not going to be as strong as the last few fronts and will be moving more slowly, and that could prolong the rainfall over the region through Saturday and possibly into Saturday night.
This map shows the computer model forecast rainfall amounts in inches for Friday through Saturday:
Mother's Day Outlook:
By Sunday, the cold front is forecast to push to the south and offshore into the Gulf of Mexico. The last of the upper level disturbances is also forecast to move across by then. If all that pans out, then we should see an end to the rain, and possibly some clearing, on Sunday, Mother's Day. If that last disturbance hangs back to our west instead of moving across, then there could be some lingering showers and cloudiness on Mother's Day. Still five days out, so the weekend forecast remains in a fluid state.