The State of Texas, and right here at home, stands to get a tall drink of water from Mother Nature over the next 24 to 48 hours.
A slow moving, upper-level low is moving into the western side of the state this morning (Thursday) and will continue it's trek to the east through late Friday / early Saturday.
Flash Flood Watch
You'll notice the words "Flash Flood Watch" in green at the top, left hand corner of your tv screen over next couple of days. The National Weather Service has issued just that for Lee and Milam Counties through Friday afternoon (at the earliest). The rest of the Brazos Valley - as of now -- has been kept out of that watch. Not to say that we couldn't be added later today or tonight. Here's the exact wording from the Houston / Galveston National Weather Service on that possibility:
"Because the potential for the heaviest rainfall is on Friday...decided to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now. However, any area that receives 2 to 3 inches in a 1 to 2 hour period may experience minor flooding...flash flood threat will be marginal for much of the area, but still concerned for areas mainly south of Brenham."
Estimated Rainfall Totals
The reason we are watching this storm system closely is because the exact track that it takes will give us an idea of just how much rain we will find in the gauge by Saturday afternoon when the rain chances disappear again. We look at a couple of different computer models through the day, and many of those models are predicting multiple inches of rain for much of Texas. From our two in-house computer models -- they are estimating two different outcomes.
The first, called the Adonis Model, is an older, lower resolution output that is pretty consistent to many of the other computer models we look at. The Adonis is suggesting 2" to 3"+ across much of the area.
The second is the PinPoint Forecast Model you see on-air most day. This is our "Microcast Model" which has a smaller grid size which in turn creates a higher resolution. On most days, I'll hold this model in high regard -- however, it is the only one downplaying this event a bit more and only has 0.5" to 2.0" for the area.
Grab an umbrella and stay tuned -- it looks to be a soggy next day or so with this big rain maker. We'll watch things closely and, of course, keep you updated here on kbtx.com, through twitter and on our facebook pages as well.