Our active weather pattern continues as we dig deeper into this third full week of February. Monday brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Brazos Valley. In fact, after a few tornado warned storms moved across Montgomery and San Jacitnto Counties around 2pm yesterday. The National Weather Service in Houston found that a EF-1 tornado briefly touched down just east of Shephered. The complete report from Tuesday's storm survey can be found here.
Cold & Rainy Wednesday
Sunshine and mild temperatures filled the Brazos Valley this afternoon, in the wake of our Monday cold front. Hope you were able to enjoy it -- scattered rain, clouds and chilly weather is in store for the middle of the week.
As our next upper-level system moves from the Coast of California towards the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, a warm front will start to work through the State of Texas. The Brazos Valley will sit on the cooler and more stable side of that warm front, but warm air will overrun that cool airmass in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.
Expect morning temperatures in the chilly mid-40s when you wake up in the morning, followed by a struggle to make it into the mid-to-upper 50s by Wednesday afternoon. While rain won't fall all day long -- light, scattered showers and the occasional patch of drizzle will likley pass you by. It'll be a great day to keep a jacket and an umbrella close by.
Thunderstorms -- some severe -- expected by Thursday Morning
As that upper-low swings across the Plains, a surface low will sweep across Texas Wednesday night / early Thursday morning. Temperatures will actually WARM during the overnight hours leading into Thursday morning, which is the arrival of the moist and unstable air to help fuel a severe weather threat.
The Brazos Valley will sit near what is called "The Triple Point" -- an area where a surface low, dry line / cold front, and warm front all intersect. That area of a storm system typically spurs on severe weather.
What to Watch For:
For now it looks like our best timing of storms on Thursday will come around the 6am to 8am time frame. As these storms blow through -- likely in the form of a line of thunderstorms -- large hail and strong, damaging winds won't be out of the question with some of this activity. Should a few isolated thunderstorms spin up ahead of this main line, we could see a brief tornado threat from time to time early in the day as well.
Below is a look at our PinPoint Computer Forecast over the next 2 days:
Wednesday Morning --
Thursday Morning (Severe Weather Threat Increases --
Thursday Mid-Morning --
Thursday Noon (Severe Weather / Rain Chance Moves East) --
Possible Rain Totals:
If everything plays out the way that it looks on paper, 1/2" to 1.5" of rain is not out of the question across the Brazos Valley by the end of business on Thursday. Here's an early look at what our In-House PinPoint Computer Forecast is predicting:
Don't forget you can keep up with the latest in the forecast by checking back to the weather page, twitter (@KBTXWeather or @KBTXShel) along with our Facebook page. As rain and thunderstorms start to move through the Brazos Valley, you can track them alongside the PinPoint Weather Team using our Interactive PinPoint Radar.