Another round of hit-or-miss, soaking showers moved across the Brazos Valley today. While it wasn't for everyone, pockets of the area picked up some decent rain totals by the end of the day. Below is a look at some of the official totals (at area airports) and Weather Watcher totals:
Trouble in the Gulf of Mexico?
A disturbance is rolling out of the Caribbean this evening and headed towards the South / Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Hunters flew into this system earlier this afternoon, but were unable to find a well defined area of circulation -- regardless of how impressive it looks on satellite.
That said, the National Hurricane Center (yes..still up and running regardless of the Government Shutdown) has placed a high -- 70% -- chance of this becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next couple of days. If it were to become a tropical storm, as some of our computer models suggest, it would take the name "Karen."
That said, development or not, it won't be a concern for the Brazos Valley or Texas...
Cold Front...Right Ahead
Why won't the potential "Karen" be a concern for us? Because of a weekend cold front that is expected to move into the Brazos Valley.
We're looking at Saturday to be split into two different scenarios -- the morning will be partly to mostly cloudy, warm in the 80s and muggy. By (about) midday, a few showers and thunderstorms should be crossing from the north to the south (30% chance). That potential rain activity will signal the start of changes, associated with this cold front.
Once the front blows in, breezy north to northwest winds will take over and drop temperatures off into the 70s by the end of the day. As cooler and dry air continues to flow into the area Saturday evening / night, we'll look for lows to dip into the mid / upper 50s by the time you wake up on Sunday morning.
Clearing skies should wrap up the weekend -- along with highs struggling to touch 80°. Calmer winds, clear skies and a cool / dry air mass will help lows fall into the low 50s for many Monday morning -- with a few areas possibly waking up to the upper 40s!
We'll need to tweak the forecast a bit here and there...but it looks like we'll get a pretty good taste of Autumn, right in time for the first weekend of October!
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