Before we get into the meat and potatoes of this forecast -- let's talk about the salad first.
Be sure to take time and step outside, either this evening or early tomorrow, and catch one of the last "hurrahs" of summer. The "Harvest Moon" will take to the sky tonight -- aka September's Full Moon. It officially becomes "full" shortly after 6am Thursday morning. Even though we'll be dodging scattered cloud cover, you should be able to catch a peek:
Who Wants Rain?
Did you just scream "ME....PICK ME!!!" at the screen? More reserved and just raised your hand? Regardless, we need that moisture and it looks like Mother Nature just might oblige.
We're watching two features that are going to increase our rain chances across the Brazos Valley.
The first -- tropical moisture that will be surging in from the Gulf of Mexico. A disturbance is sitting in the Far, Southern Gulf of Mexico this evening (the Bay of Campeche) and will likely become our next tropical depression or tropical storm in the coming days. While that system is expected to move towards Northeast Mexico (as of tonight), we should be able to cash in on deep tropical moisture being flung towards the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas.
Showers and thunderstorms will form along the Upper Texas Coast by Friday morning to midday and then spread northward as we get our daytime heating going. That should be a good coverage of rainfall for the area...but there's more...
The second -- a cold front dropping in from the north. Friday morning brings a line of showers and thunderstorms, along with heavy rain, across North Texas to the Panhandle.
As the day progresses, that cold front and rain will slowly sag south towards the Brazos Valley -- with an estimated time of arrival around suppertime. Once the front moves in, that'll be our insurance to keep rain chances alive into the evening and overnight hours.
The front will sweep through the area and to the south by Saturday morning. While showers / drizzle will be possible early Saturday, drier air will fill in behind the front allowing for slow clearing from noon through sunset.
How Much Rain Are We Talking About?
Thanks to to the consistency the forecast has brought us this week, that widespread rain for the Brazos Valley is looking like a good bet.
Most of the area has a decent chance of seeing anywhere between 1" to 2" of rainfall from Thursday afternoon through early Saturday morning.
For those in our southern counties, a few areas of 2"+ will be possible. Due to the tropical nature of this rainfall, there could be some brief, flash flooding that occurs with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms.
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