Our cold front came through the Brazos Valley on Tuesday afternoon as expected -- however, there was one snag that computer models missed in the forecast. If you walked outside this morning expecting a bit of a chill in the air (forecast lows were projected to be anywhere from the mid 50s to the low 60s area wide) but instead only felt cool -- you can blame that snag.
Dry Air Taking Longer to Trickle In
Dry air is / was the key to a cooler morning -- something that called an audible on the forecast. Dry air cools down and heats up easily, so with forecast dewpoints (the measure of moisture in the atmosphere) in the 50s, a chilly morning didn't seem very unlikely.
40° and 50° dewpoint temperatures snagged and made it as far south as North and Central Texas overnight. With the exception of Milam, Robertson and Leon Counties, dewpoints remained in the mid-to-low 60s throughout the Brazos Valley.
Dewpoint temperatures are important to the forecast because it lets you know things like: is there enough moisture for precipitation, lower dewpoints can help determine the location of a cold front and -- most importantly -- your temperature cannot drop lower than the dewpoint reading. (aka "hitting the dewpoint")
The Ol' College Try
As north to northeast winds continue to blow through the area at a light breeze, the air will slowly dry out and dewpoint temperatures are expected to fall into the upper to mid 50s by the early afternoon hours. Most of the drier air will hit our central and eastern counties -- so we'll try again to see more widespread 50s on the temperature map come tomorrow morning. Here's a look at your forecast lows for tonight:
Next Cold Front...Northern US Snow?
Just as we ring Fall in officially (9:49am CDT) on Saturday -- snow is in the forecast for states surrounding the Great Lakes. Yep....SNOW!
Low pressure systems are dropping out of Canada like clockwork as we transition between Summer and Autumn. The previous one helped usher in yesterday's cold front...the next will bring that snow potential to our north.
While it may be cold enough for a freeze and snow near the US / Canadian border -- by the time our next front gets here, it'll likely be all but washed up in terms of a big cool down. That being said, it will help us keep temperatures at seasonal levels and ensure more beautiful weather across the Brazos Valley.
So, yeah...no snow or freeze here -- but the fact that it is happening up north means that it won't be far from future forecasts for ourselves! Until then...enjoy the sunshine!