Monday Evening Weather Blog (11/25): Soggy Weather Winding Down

After a string of cold, wet, and blustery days across the Brazos Valley, we'll start to slowly bring our rain chance to an end and eventually bring sunshine back to the area. However, a touch of winter precipitation could try to fall before we shut down completely.

Soggy Days are Almost Over

Let's not discredit our recent rainfall. It was much needed and a good soaking for the Brazos Valley. Bryan / College Station went from being behind on rainfall by a few tenth of an inch last week to sitting a couple of inches ahead of the game.

Here's a look at some official rainfall totals for Monday, November 25th (as of 8pm):

Click on image to enlarge

Other totals from Weather Watchers across the area:

--OSR & HWY 21W: 4.00"
--Centerville: 1.42"
--Snook: 1.44"
--Kurten: 1.30"
--Carlos: 1.25"

Our big upper level low that has spawned all of this soggy weather will swing across Texas tonight and Tuesday -- leading to one more chance of light showers / precipitation.

Waking up to Rain / Sleet? / Flurries?

All of the above are possible -- one of which is more likely than any...

We'll look for a 30% chance of light rain / showers as we kick off our Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees above freezing by sunrise Tuesday. Because we have temperatures forecast to drop just above 32° -- we'll also leave our precipitation in the form of liquid, if it can come together.

That all said, much like Monday's forecast -- should temperatures drop that extra 1° to 2° -- we could see a bit of light sleet or even snow flurries mixed in.

While the initial thought on any frozen precipitation would be sleet, we could see a few flurries mix in if moisture hangs around from Sunrise to noon. Below is a look at our set up as the above upper-level low swings across the Brazos Valley. The key is for the moisture (green) to link up with the "cold-core low" (blue). If that can happen, then sure...a few flurries will be possible.

That said, the chance for freezing precipitation will only hold at roughly 10%. Should anything of the frozen variety fall, it will melt on contact. Surface roads will be fine, classes will not be cancelled, and travel issues are not anticipated. We may need to keep an eye on bridges and overpasses for a few slick, icy buildups. Here's a look at the best, if any, of that 10% to come through:

Why Sleet?

Here's a look at the forecast sounding of our atmosphere around 6am Tuesday. The 0°C diagonal line is our freezing point. Notice that the two lines are just above that diagonal for a bit before falling to the left of it. Once we come to the bottom of the chart (the surface) the line moves back to the right of 0°C. Hence, the forecast for a cold rain:

Why Flurries?

As the day progresses, our two lines fall below or left of 0°C. That shows freezing temperatures throughout the atmosphere above us. That said, our temperature line tries to dart just to the right of our 0°C line at the surface, indicating possible melting of said snow flurries. Also note our two lines spread out a bit at the surface -- indicating that moisture is beginning to dry out. Hence the low / nil chance of flurries:

Rain Chance Comes To An End -- Staying Cold

You may have noticed, in the PinPoint Forecast above, that clouds will try to clear as we head toward sunset and beyond Tuesday. By Wednesday we expect sunnier skies to prevail in the Brazos Valley once again.

Before we get to that sunshine, a cloudy and breezy day will lead to another frigid one Tuesday. Here's a look at estimated temperatures (red line) vs. wind chills (blue line) for the day:

Freezing Temperatures on the Way

One of the more interesting parts of our recent weather setup is that with all the cold temperatures staying in place, it still is not cold enough for Bryan / College Station to record its First Freeze of the season.

Once skies clear Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, we'll be able to find freezing temperatures across all of the Brazos Valley. We'll look for lows around 30° Wednesday morning, followed by many waking up to the upper 20s by Thanksgiving morning.

A cooler than normal forecast stays in place this week -- but we have highs in the low 70s on tap by the beginning of next week (before our next cold front slides in)

Stay Warm & Dry -- we'll be watching the radar close on Tuesday.
--Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley


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