Rain chances will increase by Thursday afternoon. First rain drops, for the Brazos Valley, could come as early as the overnight hours to the morning hours of Thursday. A few storms by late afternoon / evening could be strong to severe.
Plenty to Work With
Moisture streaming in from two sources is creating a juicy atmosphere for the Brazos Valley over the next couple of days.
The breezy to gusty winds we've been fighting for the past several afternoons has increased the low level moisture supply, out of the Gulf of Mexico. Dew points (measure of moisture in the atmosphere) has increased to the mid-60s (great for rain chances).
To the southwest of Mexico, a tropical disturbance is slowly trekking to the northeast. High, Pacific moisture is streaming from that, over Mexico, and into Texas.
An upper-level low pressure system is spinning across the Rockies and towards the Central Plains. Wednesday evening brought severe thunderstorms to West Texas, Western Oklahoma, Eastern Colorado, and parts of Southern Nebraska. Another disturbance riding along with that Pacific moisture will be the lift needed in the atmosphere to get showers and thunderstorms to develop.
Snag the Umbrella
There have been two outcomes from high resolution / short range models today.
The first, and best case scenario:
The second and "worst" (because it leans towards less rain for the area) case scenario:
Regardless, confidence is high for a Brazos Valley rain chance due to many outlooks bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms from west of the area, into our backyard by late afternoon / early evening.
Here's a look at the Wednesday Evening PinPoint Computer Forecast "Future Radar" for **Potential** activity Thursday into Friday:
Potential Rainfall for the Brazos Valley
Something we've been needing for some time -- a decent soaking of rain across the area.
Here's one outlook for **Potential** rainfall from Thursday morning through Sunrise Saturday. Take this outcome with a grain-of-salt. We'll still need to tweak this a bit by how / when rain fires up on Thursday:
Slight Chance at Severe Thunderstorms
The northern half of the Brazos Valley is under a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms on THURSDAY (per the Storm Prediction Center.
While it doesn't look like an overwhelming threat -- should any storms become strong to severe, large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern.
Interactive PinPoint Radar
If / when rain starts for the Brazos Valley, don't forget you can check Interactive PinPoit Radar at anytime.
We'll keep you updated of any developments through the day / evening Thursday.
Until then, it is a waiting game. The potential for decent rainfall is there -- now we just have to see if Mother Nature is going to play ball.
--Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley