Wednesday Morning Update
Debby has weakened to a Tropical Depression. As of now she still has sustained winds near 35mph and is moving NE at 10 mph. She is expected to make her way out of Florida by today. The main threat at this point will be flooding and high waters in Florida. Everything should really start to calm down by this evening.
Tuesday Evening Update
Debby has officially made landfall, with the center of circulation being right above Steinhatchee, FL. The National Hurricane Center is expecting the system to weaken into a Tropical Depression within the next 12 hours, but later on in the week and into the weekend, as it crosses Florida Debby could very well re-intensify as it gets back into those warm Atlantic waters.
While the system is currently weakening, flooding and high winds are still a reality with this storm as it moves over an already saturated Florida. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either.
7am Tuesday Morning Update
Tropical Storm Debby hasn't moved much over the past couple of hours, as it is now located 85 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, with sustained winds of 45mph. The system is now moving in a more easterly direction at 3mph, which will be the general trend of the storm until it makes landfall within the next couple of days.
Because this system isn't moving very fast, as much as 6 to 12 inches feet of rain is expected to fall in northern parts of the state of Florida. In extreme southeast portions of Georgia, 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected to fall once the storm moves inland.
Tropical storm force winds extend outwards of 240 miles, mainly southeast, of the center of the storm. Areas along the Florida coast will see rising waters and flood conditions as the Debby approaches and makes landfall.
Along with heavy rains and storm surge, isolated tornadoes are also possible across the entire Florida peninsula.
The expected path of the storm hasn't changed since yesterday evening and isn't expected to over the next couple of hours.
For the latest details on Tropical Storm Debby, visit the National Hurricane Center's webpage.. The next update is expected at 10am this morning.
Monday Evening Update
Tropical Storm Debby is currently located about 30 miles south / southwest of Apalachicola, Florida with winds sustained of 45mph and is slowly moving to the northeast at 5mph. Central pressure remains unchanged as of 4pm.
Still not much of a change in pressure, wind speed or location of Tropical Storm Debby -- however, the fact that this storm is sitting just off the coast of Florida, with little movement, is causing big problems in itself.
Tropical Storm force winds are being experienced 230 miles outward from the center of Debby -- mainly on the southeastern side of the storm.
Apalachee Bay to Waccasassa Bay are expecting storm surge over the next couple of days between 3 to 5 feet and Florida's West coast south of Waccasassa Bay is anticipated between 1 to 3 feet.
Flooding will continue to be a major concern with Debby as an additional 6 to 12 inches of rain could fall across Northern Florida, while 4 to 8 inches are anticipated across Central Florida. Isolated amounts of 25 inches of rain are possible in parts of North Florida. A tornado threat will continue across the Eastern Florida Panhandle, Central Florida and Southern Georgia.
National Hurricane Center Official Forecast Path:
Tropical Storm Debby's Wind Field Probability:
The next full update to Tropical Storm Debby's Forecast is expected around 10pm. All the latest details can be found on the National Hurricane Center's webpage.
1pm Monday Afternoon Update
As of 1pm, Tropical Storm Debby is currently located about 50 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida, with sustained winds of 45mph.
The storm is moving slowly at 5mph to the northeast.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida coast, from Destin to Englewood. Forecasters do not expect a lot of strengthening from Debby in the next few days.
10am Monday Morning Update
As of 10am, Tropical Storm Debby was a little weaker as it moves slowly towards the Florida Coast.
The storm is currently located 75 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida with winds sustained at 45mph and is currently moving northeast at 3mph.
Changes as of 10am: Tropical Storm warnings from the Florida / Alabama border to Destin, Florida have been cancelled.
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect along the Florida Gulf Coast from Destin to Englewood.
Tropical Storm force winds are currently extending 230 miles outward from the center of Debby's circulation -- mainly on the southeastern side of the storm.
Many parts of Western Florida are currently experiencing some sort of flooding along with a few damage reports of roofs being lifted off homes due to tropical storm force winds.
Next Intermediate Update from the National Hurricane Center: 1pm
Next Complete Forecast Update: 4pm
5am Monday Morning Update
Parts of Florida are getting a drenching as Tropical Storm Debby moves slowly in the Gulf of Mexico.
Not only is flooding a concern, but the storm has spawned isolated tornadoes, and one has killed at least one person.
4am Monday Morning Update
Tropical Storm Debby is located about 90 miles south / southwest of Apalachiola, Florida. Sustained winds in this storm are at about 50 mph.
Movement of this storm is nearly stationary, with little movement in the forecast over the next few days. There is a lot of uncertainty as to where this storm will travel due to weak steering currents in the ocean, though the projected path of this storm from 10pm Sunday evening remains on track. Little to no impact on Texas weather is expected at this time.
10pm Sunday Night Update
Tropical Storm Debby is currently located 10 miles south / southwest of Apalachicola, Florida and 200 miles east / southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Winds remain unchanged throughout the day at 60mph, with higher gusts at times. This storm is also currently stationary -- meaning that there is no forward progression towards the Gulf Coast.
Tropical Storm Warnings are posted from the Mississippi / Alabama border eastward to the Suwannee River in Florida.
Debby is anticipated to strengthen gradually, but little movement is expected over the next several days.
Parts of Western Florida have already received close to 10" of rain throughout the past several days leading to flooding throughout part of the state. Multiple waterspouts, funnel clouds and tornadoes have been reported as well over the course of Sunday.
At this time, Texas does not expect to be affected weather-wise by Tropical Storm Debby.
The next update and the official forecast cone expected around 4am.
4pm Sunday Afternoon Update
Tropical Storm Debby continues to leave forecasters uncertain with its path. The threat to Louisiana has lessened. The latest model runs have led the National Hurricane Center to extend the Tropical Storm Watch southward along the west coast of Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River westward to Morgan City has been discontinued.
Tropical Storm Debby is currently located 205 miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 100 miles SSW of Apalachicola Florida with sustained winds near 60 mph. There is still a minimum central pressure of 993mb. Debby is SLOWLY moving towards the NE at 3mph. There is no significant motion expected to take place within the next couple of days.
Below is a link to the coastal watches and warnings associated with Tropical Storm Debby.
National Hurricane Center's Watches/Warnings
The next full forecast update will be at 10pm.
1pm Sunday Afternoon Update
Not much has changed with the 1pm Intermediate update put out by the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Debby is currently centered 200 miles east / southeast from the Mouth of the Mississippi and 105 miles south / southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. Maximum sustained winds continue at 60mph with a slightly slower movement to the northeast at 5mph. The central pressure has dropped to 993mb -- not much of a change but it does show that Debby is slowly starting to strengthen a bit.
Next full forecast update: 4pm
Sunday Morning Update
Tropical Storm Debby is 190 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 140 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. This storm has central pressure of 994mb, sustained winds of 60mph and is moving northeast at 6mph. Tropical Storm force winds extend 200 miles outward from the north and east of the center of Debby.
The latest forecast path for Tropical Storm Debby has shifted a bit farther to the north from the advisories placed on Saturday afternoon and evening. As of now, the latest official forecast has Debby possibly strengthening into a Category 1 Hurricane by Wednesday morning then possibly coming on land around Southeastern Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the mouth of the Pearl River westwards to Morgan City in Louisiana (not including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain at this time) and from the Mississippi / Alabama border eastward to the Suwannee River in Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Florida from south of the Suwannee River to Anclote Key, Florida.
As with any tropical system, storm surge is a big concern. As of now, surge of 3 to 5 feet look possible for Southeastern Louisiana eastward through Apalachee Bay, 1 to 3 feet for the West Coast of Florida south of Apalachee Bay and 1 to 3 feet for Southwestern Florida.
Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rainfall along the immediate Gulf Coast from Southeast Louisiana to the Central West Coast of Florida -- with isolated 15 inch accumulations not out of the question.
Tornado Warnings, funnel clouds and hail have all been reported today along the West Coast of Florida.
Lots of uncertainty continue to remain in the forecast path of Tropical Storm Debby. Many computer models continue to pull Debby to the east through Florida as the storm could get caught up in a trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States. By that same token, many other computer models continue to drift Debby around a large area of high pressure bringing the storm more to the west (and in line with the official National Hurricane Center forecast). It is possible for this forecast path and Cone of Uncertainty to shift dramatically as later forecasts are issued.
Below is a comparison of the official forecast versus all the computer models used to determine the storms direction. Each line in the bottom picture represents a different computer models output:
Next intermediate update from the National Hurricane Center: 1pm
Next Full Update: 4pm
An Air Force Reconnaissance Plane -- otherwise known as Hurricane Hunters -- are currently in the process of wrapping up flying through the area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico known as Invest 96L. Early indications are that wind speed data and pressure requirements are enough to suggest that Tropical Storm Debby has now formed. According to multiple Twitter reports, Navy weather websites and National Hurricane Center systems have renamed Invest 96L to Debby already.
We'll continue to monitor the progress -- but it is anticipated that the first advisories from the National Hurricane Center will come out around 4pm CDT.
Any advisories and Tropical Weather Outlooks will be posted to The National Hurricane Center's Website.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving the disturbance in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico a 90% chance of becoming either a tropical depression or tropical storm today -- and leaning more towards naming our next tropical storm.
This morning's Tropical Weather Outlook stated that it seem the center of circulation with this low was located roughly 275 miles south / southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi. Buoy data 130 miles east / northeast of this center has detected tropical storm force winds within a few hours of 7am.
Twitter reports a Carnival Cruise ship near the center of this low pressure measured 1002mb pressure and 10 to 11 foot waves. Between that and the buoy data, it is not certain -- although it looks like -- we very well could have Debby in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Hunters will be sent into the storm later this afternoon to verify what is being suggested by satellite and buoy data. While this could still be just a depression at this point, it looks like the National Hurricane Center could be leaning towards naming this Tropical Storm Debby once they receive word from the reconnaissance plane after it investigates later this afternoon.
Where will this storm go?
That is still a very tough question. Looking at our computer models this morning (each line below indicates a different model) there is a good split between taking this system west to South Texas / Northern Mexico, northward towards the Alabama / Mississippi Coast and a few that are still leaning towards Florida after being picked up by a trough of low pressure on the eastern side of the country.
In terms of the Upper Texas Coast and a bigger impact for the Brazos Valley -- still not out of the question, although -- we don't anticipate a large impact here. A few computer models over the past few days have brought this storm closer to our part of the state, but with a strong ridge of high pressure setting up over the center of the country, it is likely to push any activity to South Texas / Northern Mexico should this system move west.
Again, still hard to be certain -- but something that should be watched throughout the day and weekend. A great graphic was put out by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee this morning, showing the uncertainty of this system and heeding the warning from the NHC that tropical storm watches or warnings could be placed for the Northern Gulf Coast at some point this weekend.
Details and updates as they become available. Of course, you can always follow the latest on Twitter (@KBTXShel)