We've found the weekend once again, and it'll be a mild one -- with a slight warming trend. A few light showers or sprinkles may be possible during some of those outdoor activities.
Chilly Nights...but Becoming Seasonable
Mostly cloudy skies are sitting over the Brazos Valley Friday evening, as high to mid level moisture streams in from the southwest.
Those clouds will act as a blanket for the area, keeping temperatures just a few degrees warmer than we found Thursday morning. That said, we're still looking for lows to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s by daybreak Saturday.
Widespread low 50s are in store by the first rays of sunlight on Sunday. We'll look for a low around 53° here in Bryan / College Station -- which is perfectly normal for this time in early November.
Clouds Stream Overhead. Rain Falls From Them?
Sure. It is possible.
As of Friday evening, a batch of, what looked like, light showers was moving towards the I-35 corridor from the west. While on radar this looks like an impressive area of rain, at the surface it actually is just falling as a few sprinkles.
Best reason? Dry air in the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere. Once that rain reaches that dry air, it starts to evaporate and leaves just a few drizzle to sprinkle showers. The National Weather Service in Fort Worth put together a great graphic to explain the scenario:
This will be the case for us as well.
We'll call for a 20% chance of light showers through early-to-mid afternoon on Saturday. Any rain that manages to punch through that dry layer of air will be of the light variety. We'll call this a "don't even need to carry an umbrella" forecast. Outdoor plans will be fine...just know that there might be a bit of moisture falling on your Saturday events.
Big Change Next Week?
Looks like it could be in the cards.
A large area of low pressure takes a nose-dive down the east coast by the beginning to middle of next week. At the same time, an area of high pressure drops south out of Central Canada into the center of the United States.
The two combined will send a strong cold front towards Texas and the Brazos Valley. By Tuesday, that front blows into the area and starts to drop temperatures off as breezy north winds kick in.
This looks like the coldest air mass of the season -- thus far -- with lows anticipated in the low / mid 30s on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Afternoon highs on Wednesday could likely not even reach 60°!
Garden Watch 2013
As we await our possible Canadian Air mass -- this weekend will be a good time to start thinking about or start making preparations for a light frost or freeze, when it comes to our gardens.
Many of our outlying areas could touch the freeze mark for a short bit while those that don't could still find a patchy frost on the ground by the middle of next week.
We'll keep a close eye on the forecast and let you know if action is needed to protect that tender vegetation.
Have a great and safe weekend. BTHO mississippistate
--Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley
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