A disturbance sitting in the Far, Southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday evening is slated to become the next tropical system to spawn in the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
In a repeat performance of how Hurricane Ingrid became a system in the Gulf last weekend, this disturbance is tracing the -- almost -- exact path. As of Thursday evening, a center of circulation was located in the Bay of Campeche -- near Campeche, Mexico itself.
While a circulation became present Wednesday, after this disturbance rolled over the Yucatan Peninsula, the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it was poorly organized. Due to the activity being offset to the east of the circulation, the Hurricane Hunter plane that was scheduled to investigate this system was cancelled. Another flight is scheduled for Thursday.
As of this afternoon, winds were clocked around 30mph with this disturbance. Once a well organized system and center of circulation can be located, we'll likely have Tropical Depression ELEVEN. Should sustained winds of 39mph or greater be located, we'll have our next Tropical Storm, which would be named Jerry.
Below is the latest Computer Model Output for this area of interest. As the latest models are generated, the image will automatically update:
From the viewpoint of Wednesday evening, this system is not expected to make a direct impact to the Upper Texas Coast or Brazos Valley. However, an influx of tropical moisture from this system is forecast to reach the area by Friday -- helping to increase rain chances Friday afternoon / evening.