5pm Weather Update
At the moment, there is a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH in effect until 11pm this evening for most of the Brazos Valley.
The counties included in the watch are Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Lee, Milam, Montgomery, San Jacinto, Walker, Waller, and Washington counties.
We haven't had any severe thunderstorms roll through the area just yet, though the threat continues until later this evening.
Rain chances are still increasing, and the current forecast looks to be on track. To read more about the cause for all of this rain, continue reading below.
Rain chances are increasing as we watch an upper-level low move out of the western US towards the Lone Star State.
A few showers were found moving through the southwestern corner of the Brazos Valley Tuesday morning, while severe thunderstorms approached the Dallas / Fort Worth Metroplex. This, all the beginning of more, expected, rain to come...
Increasing Rain Chances
While small showers will be possible early Tuesday, heavier rain and thunderstorms are more likely heading into the late afternoon, evening and overnight hours.
Above are images from the In-House KBTX PinPoint Computer Forecast. This particular forecast model points towards the window for thunderstorms to open around the 3pm to 4pm hour and then continues to increase storm and rain chances through the overnight hours of Tuesday night / Wednesday morning.
While this is a more localized computer forecast, other global models are predicting the possibility of a complex of thunderstorms to form west of I-35 Tuesday afternoon and evening, which could then shift towards the Brazos Valley.
Scattered, heavy rain looks like a possibility in both scenarios -- we could also see a few strong to severe storms containing winds in excess of 50mph to 60mph and hail around the size of, or larger, than quarters.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather across the Southwestern Brazos Valley. Main time frame to find stronger weather is generally between sunset Tuesday and 6am Wednesday.
Much Needed Rainfall
With most of the Brazos Valley finding themselves in an increasing drought situation, any rainfall that comes from this system will be welcomed.
General thoughts range between 0.50" and 1.50" of possible rainfall by Wednesday evening. That being said, there could be a few areas -- especially across the northeastern corner of the Brazos Valley -- that could pick up a localized 2"+.
Should those higher totals occur, localized, brief flash flooding could become a concern for resident's Wednesday morning commute.
PinPoint Computer Forecast for Possible Rainfall Totals through Wednesday Morning
Keep Up To Date
With a healthy amount of rainfall in the forecast over the next 24 to 48 hours -- be sure to keep up with the latest from the KBTX PinPoint Weather Team.
Should the situation become one of severe weather or flooding conditions, the latest will be updated at the top of this story.
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