Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, across the Brazos Valley, this afternoon and evening. Winds in excess of 40-60mph are the main concern, within the strongest activity. An isolated, brief tornado threat cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall between 1" and 3" has the potential to cause localized flash flooding in a few locations.
All week, we here in the weather center have been debating whether or not there will be freezing rain or sleet Sunday evening into Monday. Models are now thinking the atmosphere is going to remain a bit too warm for that to play out.
Earlier in the week, models were coming into agreement that temperatures were going to get close to that freezing mark this evening. Once the rain started, the air would cool itself down enough to get at or below freezing and turn the rain into freezing rain or sleet.
As Sunday evening draws closer, temperatures look to stay just warm enough to not achieve that winter mix.
Monday night into Tuesday could be another time period where freezing precipitation is a possibility. It is actually looking more likely than this evening's situation, but not by much. Models are also trending a bit warmer than freezing for this event.
Of course, the models aren't always right. The atmosphere could still cool off enough to see a bit of a mix in areas from BCS northward. Once the event gets started, we will know have a better idea for what will happen.
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