Monday Evening Blog (11/4): Soggy Start to the Week

Monday brought light showers, drizzle, and mist to the Brazos Valley. That will be the case for the first half of the work / school week, as we await our next cold front.

A Messy, Drizzle-Filled Night

After scattered, light showers danced across parts of the Brazos Valley Monday, we wrapped up the day with a light mist / drizzle falling for most by 5pm.

As of 8pm, that drizzle continued for a good portion of the Brazos Valley. Expect light rain & patchy drizzle to continue overnight. While it won't be a heavy rain to raise flooding concerns, we will wake up to slick streets Tuesday for morning commutes.

Scattered Rain Chance Continues

High and mid-level Pacific moisture is streaming over Texas from the Southeast, pulled in off of Tropical Depression Sonia. That is also allowing small disturbances to roll across our atmosphere as well. At the surface, Gulf moisture is riding back in from the south.

We'll likely find a few more scattered showers first thing Tuesday morning, especially across the Western and Central Brazos Valley. We'll keep a 30% chance of splotchy rain through the morning hours, and follow up with a 20% shot by afternoon.

Afternoon activity looks like it will try to drift more into the Eastern Brazos Valley. Computer models were even trying to let a bit of sunshine break out between mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday afternoon. If we can get that, we'll find afternoon temperatures in the mid / upper 70s.

Wednesday Cold Front / Rain Chance Continues

By midnight Wednesday, short range, hi-res computer models have a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms setting up just north and west of the Brazos Valley. We'll be on the look for it, for two reasons:

1) This will be the line of showers and thunderstorms expected to move south and east through the Brazos Valley by Sunrise Wednesday.

2) If this line can form, it will act as a wall to keep Gulf moisture from reaching our cold front -- meaning as the front slides in, it will likely remain a thin line of showers / possible weak thunderstorms.

Here's the latest output of the Texas Tech University 3km WRF showing this scenario at 3am Wednesday (forecast radar):

Clearing out and Cooling Down

After chilly 40s to kick off Saturday and Sunday -- overnight lows will only make the mid / upper 60s, before the front arrives.

By Thursday morning, life behind our latest cold front will bring overnight lows in the 40s and afternoon highs in the 60s.

Enjoy the end of the week -- it looks like the weekend might be spent collecting moisture ahead of our next rain maker. More on that later in the week...

--Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley

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