Monday Evening Weather Blog (1/20): Snap Back to Reality

After a great stretch of sunny and mild weather here in the month of January -- it is back to reality this week. The latest cold front to reach the Brazos Valley arrives Tuesday evening. Another, stronger front is in store later in the week.

Here Comes the Wind

South to southwest winds did the trick -- along with ample sunshine -- Monday to bring afternoon highs into the mid / upper 70s. Read that again... MID TO UPPER 70s! In the month of January!

This stretch of mild & spring-like weather was a great treat, but it is time to come back down to reality.

Winds started to shift out of the north across Milam, Robertson, and Leon Counties as of 8pm Tuesday. Those winds will continue to take over the Brazos Valley, and pick up speed, as the night progresses.

When you wake up Tuesday morning, expect a wind to blow through at 15-20mph, with gusts upwards of 25mph at times. Factor in temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s (for most) and the wind chill could feel like it is freezing, from time to time.

Good news for you -- high pressure slides over the area by the afternoon. Winds should start to relax and the wind chill factor won't be quite as intense by the end of the day. Regardless, that north wind will only allow it to feel like the low 50s, at best, Tuesday.

Tonight's Cold Front Isn't the Only Game In Town

After giving such great weather to step out to over the past week, Mother Nature is looking to make us pay for those "unseasonably warm" temperatures.

A strong, Arctic cold front looks to be on the schedule for Thursday morning.

At this point -- here is a look at the "Grain-of-Salt" forecast (as of Monday evening):

Computer model data has continued to bring a big blast of cold air into the Brazos Valley by Thursday morning -- that is the "given" in this forecast. Expect wind chills in the teens & 20s Friday morning, temperatures in the upper 20s / low 30s, and a struggle to break the mid-30s by the afternoon (as it looks for now)

Extended Computer Model Forecast for Wind Chills Friday Morning (Click to Enlarge)

The moisture that could or could not come with the front is still the big question mark -- and it will stay that way for the next 24-36 hours. As a disturbance takes shape and rolls in from the west, we'll have to see if it can pull in enough moisture over the top of our cold air to develop precipitation. Latest, evening run of the GFS (computer model) brings back a rain / freezing rain / sleet chance Friday morning (orange color below) after coming in bone dry all day long.

The forecast is expected to "yo-yo" back and forth -- we'll keep you updated as we get closer to our next big slap of cold air. For now, grab the long sleeves, once again. You'll likely need them to step out into your Tuesday activities.

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