Monday Evening Weather Blog (2/24): Soggy and Colder Changes Ahead

After a stretch of spring-like conditions across the Brazos Valley, we'll look for winter to rear its ugly head once again. A strong cold front is expected to reach the area by mid-week -- scattered rain is anticipated ahead & behind this drastic change in temperatures.

Scattered Rain and Thunderstorms

From the time we kicked off 2014, the Brazos Valley was already sitting behind on rainfall, closing out the previous year.

As of Monday evening, Bryan / College Station was behind the yearly rainfall average by 3.86". Needless to say, any measurable rainfall will be welcomed across the area.

We'll work on getting some of that rain to fall over area yards, fields, and rain gauges -- starting Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Ahead of a strong cold front, due into the Brazos Valley by sunrise Wednesday, we'll look for a weak disturbance to pass by bringing a shot at scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday.

While most of this rainfall will likely leave light amounts (if any), a few storms could be on the strong side with brief, heavy rainfall, thunder, and the occasional lightning strike.

Below is a look at the Monday afternoon PinPoint Computer Forecast model for what the radar might look like Tuesday:

Severe weather is not anticipated in the Brazos Valley.

More Rain Likely

Tuesday isn't our only shot...

We'll look for a widespread, light rain to possibly begin before sunrise Wednesday and linger through sunset that evening.

While a light rain will continue to be possible past 5pm Wednesday, rainfall totals by then -- accounting for possible Tuesday and Wednesday rain -- could total up to 1" or more for much of the area.

Here's a look at the PinPoint Computer Forecast Model for possible Accumulated Rainfall from Tuesday morning through Wednesday at 5pm

Check back Tuesday -- we'll be able to fine tune those possible rainfall totals as the event draws a bit closer on our timeline.

Bitter, Cold Air Returns to the Brazos Valley

The potential for a very soggy couple of days is only one side of the weather story, across the area, these next couple of days.

By breakfast Wednesday, we anticipate our next cold front to have passed through the region.

As we continue into Wednesday, brisk north winds (between 15-25mph, with higher gusts) will spill an Arctic air mass into our backyard. Temperatures are expected to start the day in the upper 40s / low 50s and finish out in the upper 30s / low 40s.

Don't let those brisk winds be an after thought. When coupled with falling temperatures, wind chills are expected to range between 30° and 33° by the end of business Wednesday.

While this isn't the first shot of cold and soggy weather the Brazos Valley has experienced this winter -- it will be a decent change from where we've been these past few weeks.

Grab the umbrella, snag a good coat, and stand by. We'll continue to tweak and update the forecast with the latest.

--Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley


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