Tuesday Evening Weather Blog (10/22): Beautiful For Now -- Changes By Halloween

Sunshine and fall temperatures continue to grace the Brazos Valley, in the wake of a recent cold front. A quiet week is ahead, but changes a possible as we close out the month of October.

More Great, Fall Weather Ahead

Well find a "Northwest Flow" in place on Wednesday, in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. That flow is basically air conditioning out of Canada that will keep seasonable temperatures in place as we cruise into the middle of the week.

At the surface, high pressure will slide in from the Northeast keeping our skies crystal clear and winds light. If you liked today -- tomorrow will prove to be a few degrees warmer...but still enjoyable.

Tracking Changes For the End of October

We'll eventually start to work rain chances back into the forecast as we move into weekend plans.

Water Vapor imagery tells the story as we find two upper-level lows stacking up in the Pacific. The first of those two systems -- and the weaker one at that -- is located just off Southern California, as of Tuesday evening.

That low will open up and get caught up in the Eastern United States trough of low pressure by Sunday. As it moves east, just north of Texas, it will bring a slim chance of scattered showers on Saturday, followed by a better (30%) chance of scattered showers / isolated thunderstorms on Sunday.

It is the second area of low pressure -- the one you see (above) that is located near the Oregon / North California border -- that looks to bring BIG changes in temperatures and a decent batch of rain to the area by Wednesday / Thursday of next week.

While we are about a week out from the impacts of this system, a few things look to be a pretty sure bet:

--A strong cold front is set to sweep across the Brazos Valley Wednesday or Halloween Thursday
--A decent rain event looks very possible for the area as the front moves close / into our backyard

The questions that will remain lies in the timing of this system. Latest extended computer models continue to dig this trough of low pressure further south, towards the Desert Southwest, by the beginning of next week. That would suggest a slower movement and place this system over Texas on Halloween Thursday. The latest also suggest that a cut-off low could re-form over the Lone Star State, which would indicate a slow moving, widespread rain event. The orientation of this system will also tell us if we should expect the possibility of severe weather, as well. Again, we need to get a better handle on the situation before we can really hone in on the exact details.

So, here's the general idea as you start planning your Halloween events: Watch the forecast very carefully. There will likely be quite a bit of day-to-day change as we get a little closer to the arrival of this system. We'll bring you the latest and get you ready in the case that a big weather event unfolds for the Brazos Valley.

You can keep up with the PinPoint Weather Forecast right here on KBTX.com, or by following updates posted to Twitter or Facebook

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