Tuesday Evening Weather Blog (11/19): Temperatures Warm...then Crumble

A picture perfect day across the Brazos Valley, as temperatures were near their seasonal levels from morning to afternoon. A small warming trend starts to take place Wednesday before cold air crashes into the area by Friday.

Say Goodbye to Seasonal

Normal for the 19th day of November:

--Low: 49°
--High: 70°

We may have been a few degrees above the norm early this morning, but we nailed that afternoon high right on the button. We'll trade off being more seasonable Wednesday morning, with temperatures running a touch on the warm side by the afternoon.

Moisture, Clouds, and Temperatures Increasing

Southeast winds make their triumphant return to the Brazos Valley Wednesday. While you won't feel the moisture -- we'll save that for Thursday -- you will start to notice it in the sky as clouds increase from the west and southwest.

By Thursday, dew point temperatures are back into the 60° range...meaning humid conditions, overcast skies, and scattered showers will be possible.

Oh yeah...by the way...did I forget to mention that temperatures will likely climb into the low 80s for much of the area? Looks like we'll be running ~10° ABOVE the average before winter comes slamming into the area.

On the Lookout For a Strong, Arctic Cold Front

We started talking about it last week, and then spilled a few details about it in yesterday's blog.

An upper-level weather maker is starting to make a move south out of the Gulf of Alaska. While that hangs over the western side of the country, another disturbance will drop towards the Rocky Mountains by week's end and drag a strong batch of cold air down with it.

There is still a bit of uncertainty in exact temperatures...but one thing is certain -- we are going to have a winter feel from the end of business Friday, through the weekend, and into the start / middle of next week.

As of tonight -- it looks like we'll hit the low 70s by late morning / noon on Friday before a line of showers and thunderstorms (ahead of our cold front) pushes through the Brazos Valley.

Once the front arrives, strong north winds take over and temperatures fall into the 40s and 50s by sunset. We'll wake up to the 40s on Saturday and struggle to even climb out of them by the afternoon. Light on and off again showers / drizzle will be possible behind the front, adding a more miserable feel to an already windy, blustery, and cold forecast for the day.

What About That Weather Maker Out West?

Great question -- glad you asked.

We'll have to watch the movement of this area of low pressure close. Rain looks to be a good solution between Monday and Wednesday, as the low moves across Texas. The question is when / how fast will this system cross the Lone Star State...

Latest extended computer models try to paint rain back into the area by Monday afternoon / evening and continue to bring the best chance on Tuesday. That said, if the rain starts early, temperatures may not make it out of the 40s Monday / Tuesday. Also, if this system nears the state early and helps push another shot of cold air in...temperatures may barely make 40° by Sunday afternoon!

Once this system moves from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest, a better picture will be developed for us.

In the mean time -- we'll call for lows in the 30s starting Sunday morning (possibly a few freezing temperatures in outlying areas), followed by highs stuck in the 50s from Saturday through Tuesday.

Your next update can always be found on-air or on the PinPoint Weather Page.

I'll check back in tomorrow night and catch you up on the latest. Regardless of what chaos there is in the extended forecast, one thing is for sure...the Brazos Valley will be A LOT colder by the weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Shel Winkley

KBTX-TV Channel 3 4141 E. 29th Street Bryan, TX 77802 Phone: (979) 846-7777 Fax: (979) 846-1490 News Fax: (979) 846-1888
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