Tuesday Evening Weather Update (7/1): Rain Chance Picks Up Heading Towards the 4th

Written by PinPoint Weather Intern Whitney Parnell

The start of July has been a sunny, warm, and muggy one -- which is to be expected for a typical Brazos Valley, summer day. Looking over the next few days...much of the same with a chance of rain here and there.

Tropical Storm Arthur Drenching East Coast July Fourth Plans

The first named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season, Arthur, formed Tuesday morning on the East coast of Florida. It is situated over warmer water which will allow the tropical storm to intensify into a hurricane by Thursday afternoon.

As of the 4pm Tuesday update, maximum sustained winds were at 50 mph, gusting to 60 mph+, and moving Northwest at 2 mph. In order to become a hurricane, these sustained winds need to reach 74 mph -- which is forecasted to happen over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Heading out the the East coast for your July fourth? Tropical Storm Arthur is planned to march right along the coast making for some soggy plans now and throughout the weekend.

National Hurricane Center Forecast For Arthur:

We'll touch on our Independence Day forecast in just a bit...

It's Getting Hot Hot Hot

Taking a look closer at home, a high pressure system sitting over Louisiana is helping temperatures climb into the mid 90s in the Brazos Valley. Along with the heat, it will allow breezy South winds to help stir up a chance for isolated showers on Wednesday. While a cooling shower is always appreciated -- the tropical moisture that will help that potential rain build will also have the heat index value climbing to the triple digits.

Taking a look to our North, a low pressure system situated north of the Great Lakes will bring our next chance for rain. Associated with that low pressure is a weak "cold" front draping across the country. That front will start moving across the Red River and into North Texas. As this front pushes south, our rain chances will increase as we move toward the Fourth of July.

Soggy Fourth of July?

On to the all important holiday forecast...

Thanks to that weak "cold" front moving South, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, starting with a 30% chance on Thursday morning.

Moving into your Fourth of July, expect temperatures to climb into the mid 90s...but don't forget the humidity will make it feel like triple digits. With that "cold" front in the area along with daytime heating, a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger off an on through the day. If you have any backyard party or picnics plans, be sure to keep and eye to the sky for a chance of rain. Nothing event cancelling -- but it may have you running inside for a short while.

Moving into the evening, daytime heating will start to dwindle and so will the rain chances. Heading out for fireworks? You should be in the clear, but it will still be relatively warm alongside light winds.

Welcoming That Much Needed Summer Rain

With that trough settling to our Northeast, rain chances will remain into the middle of next week. Not everyone can be lucky enough to see rain everyday, but we will take those scattered showers anywhere we can get them as we move into July. A 20% chance of scattered rain is likely through the middle of the week.

Even if you don't see rain, it will still feel quite muggy when heading outdoors with highs in the mid 90s.

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