Monday Blog (9/9): Drier Oulook This Week -- Could Change By Next, Though

 While we all haven't found rain in the Brazos Valley, we've been fortunate enough to pick up scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in parts of the area over the past several afternoons.  As we cruise into this week, that looks like it might change for the drier -- giving late summer another spin.

Drying Things Out a Bit

High pressure will start to take over in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere as we get towards mid-week.  

Today, a weak area of low pressure spinning across the Western side of Texas helped to pull moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico.  That said, being out west, it pulled the richest of that moisture in just to the west and southwest of the Brazos Valley.

The subtropical jet stream nudges in a bit more from the east -- that should help keep that flow of better moisture just to the west of the Brazos Valley.  That means, we'll keep a 20% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast on Tuesday -- but the best bet will be across our drought savaged western counties.












Texas A&M vs. Alabama This Weekend

A busy week / upcoming weekend in Aggieland.  In terms of Gameday preps happening across town, a lack of rain should keep everything on schedule.  Sure an isolated shower / storm won't be totally out of the question during the afternoon hours -- but we're looking primarily dry most of this week.

Gameday will have the same outlook (for now).  Our area of high pressure will break down by Saturday allowing for temperatures to come down a few degrees (mid-90s) but rain chances are still looking nil-to-non existent.  Heat index values will likely top off in the low 100s through a better part of the game at Kyle Field.

Watching the Gulf of Mexico

An interesting development in extended forecast computer models today.  A few of our outlooks are showing an area of low pressure trying to develop in the Northwest Gulf by the end of the weekend / beginning of next week and then drifting it into either North Mexico or far, South Texas.  

As it looks now, an area of high pressure will be sitting across the Western US (centered over California) and over the Eastern / Central Gulf of Mexico (centered south of the Florida Panhandle).  A trough of low pressure over the Northeast will try to drift a weak cold front into Texas as well.

Put all of those components together, we -- for now -- are not concerned with a tropical system heading towards the Brazos Valley.  However, if that front can get close enough, we may be able to pull up a good slug of tropical moisture into the Brazos Valley, which could lead to soaking rains.  

Few things to note:

  • This forecast will change many times.  In fact, it already changed from a heavy rain possibility to a slight chance for rain from this morning to this afternoon's model output
  • Should this system manage to develop, the better the organization, the less the chance for rain would be in the Brazos Valley (implying a N. Mexico / S. Texas landfall)
  • THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE MANY TIMES.  Cannot stress that enough -- it's all voodoo and "what-if" right now.  We'll work on the forecast as normal and assume the outcome for the drier (for now).

 Keep Up With The Latest:

You can get the latest as we get it by following the forecast on:

Twitter: (@KBTXShel or @KBTXWeather)


or anytime on the Weather Page


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