Wednesday Blog (9/11): Dry For a Few Days & Watching the Gulf

 I'll start tonight's blog the same exact way that I did on Monday night -- great to have daily scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Brazos Valley recently.  

There.  Now that I've said looks like we'll put the lid on afternoon activity for a few days.  Don't get too down on yourself...we may be able to pick it right back up.

Wrapping up the Work / School Week

High pressure is going to take over in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as we cruise through Thursday.  Afternoon highs should be able to cruise up a few degrees during the late afternoon hours (mid-to-upper 90s) while rain chances -- at best -- will only fly in at 10%.

Since we are nearing the end of summer and the middle of September, high pressure isn't uncommon -- its just not as strong as what you would find anytime between June and August.  

We'll be on lookout for any rouge storms that manage to bubble up with the afternoon heat, but I wouldn't hold out hope for many.

Big Game Weekend Ahead / Small Chance For Rain Returns

Cold front.  Let that settle in your mind for a second............

Yes, cold front!  We are tracking a cold front!  Exciting stuff, right?!

Don't get too excited -- while this will be a decent cool down for the Eastern side of the UnitedStates, this "front' will likely put the brakes on before reaching the Brazos Valley.  It is worth the excitement that we are seeing a cold front break free from the north again!

Back to it though -- that "front" should settle up near the Eastern Brazos Valley by Saturday afternoon.  Get the afternoon heat into the mid-90s and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could fire up along it.  Given the flow in the atmosphere, a few of those storms may decide to drift their way right into the area.

We'll call for a 20% chance of rain for Gameday Saturday -- no need to cancel tailgate / game plans.  May want to stick a poncho on you somewhere, though, if you think about it before heading out to Kyle Field or for your Saturday plans.











Watching the Tropics

This is where things get interesting.

For the past couple of days, we've been talking about a disturbance in the Northern Caribbean that extended forecast models were projecting for tropical development once in the Southern Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche.  That development still looks likely.  In fact, as of Wednesday evening, the National Hurricane Center has a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next five days.

The iffy factor of this forecast comes with if we'll see rain from this system, which would be great.

Monday, our computer models started suggesting that this system would make landfall near North Mexico / South Texas and spread a good swath of soaking rains across a majority of South Texas.  Tuesday computer models continued to suggest the same thing -- but brought in MORE rain.  Then our recent model runs came in....almost all but dry.

As of this evening, it is looking less likely that this will be our huckleberry for drought-denting rainfall. The latest suggests that this system will take more of a westerly move and cruise towards Mexico.  The further south, the less likely our rain chance will be.

Here's why we are still monitoring the situation.  This disturbance has yet to form a clear center-of-circulation.  Once that happens, our computer models will be able to get a much better grasp on the gravity of the situation.  Keep an open mind when monitoring the forecast for early next week.  We'll tweak it together and let know for certain, when we have a more Windex-ed view from this tropical window.

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