Dorian Now A Tropical Wave

By: KBTX Weather Email
By: KBTX Weather Email

Saturday Afternoon Update

Status: Tropical Wave
Location: 18.9N 54.7°W
Max Wind: 40 MPH
Movement: W 24 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 1011 mb

Dorian has now decreased in strength to where it is now considered a Tropical Wave.

The National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories on the storm. It doesn't look like it will reform, but if it gets close enough to the Gulf of Mexico, it might affect our weather in the future by bringing us rainfall.

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Friday Evening Update

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 17.8N 45.8°W
Max Wind: 45 MPH
Movement: W 22 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 1010 mb

Dorian is a rough looking storm tonight as it struggles to maintain it's tropical storm characteristics. The official forecast calls for this system to be downgraded to a Tropical Depression by Sunday afternoon. There is some doubt that it will even make it past the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm force winds are still occuring up to 70 miles outward from the center of circulation with Dorian.

Westerly upper-level shear and drier air is the main influence in Dorian's weakening. The center of circulation has become displaced to the west of an area of deep convection.

General model agreement in the fact that this system -- tropical storm status or not -- will continue on a west / northwest path through the weekend. Below is a look at the plots of models for this system along with the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

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Friday Morning Update

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 17.1°N 41.5°W
Max Wind: 50 MPH
Movement: WNW 20 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 1001 mb

Dorian continues on a west to northwest path through the Atlantic and is carrying tropical storm force winds 60 miles outward from the center of circulation.

The storm is looking a bit on the ragged side this morning, due likely to vertical wind shear and a good patch of mid to upper level dry air.

Dorian will continue to struggle over the next day to two days due to this upper level wind shear / dry air combination that is expected to continue. While some weakening is expected, the official forecast (seen below) remains relatively unchanged and continues to bring this system to the west as a tropical storm.

Computer models are split on two different scenarios:

Scenario 1: Dorian maintains its tropical storm status and continues past Hispaniola towards the Bahamas. A trough of low pressure over the Eastern US will likely pick the storm up and possibly curve it just east of the coast.

Scenario 2: Dorian could move towards Hispaniola as a weak tropical storm. Interaction with landfall there could deteriorate the storm into just an area of low pressure or a tropical wave, due to the topography of the land.

More of a watch and wait situation, but needless to say, this storm is looking a lot less impressive than it had been over the past 48 hours.

Official Forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

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10pm Thursday Update:

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 16.6°N 39.6°W
Max Wind: 50 MPH
Movement: WNW 20 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 1001 mb

Tropical Storm Dorian has now decreased in strength, but it is still considered a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm force winds now extend 60 miles outward from the center of circulation of Dorian.

Throughout the day on Friday, Dorian will move in a more westerly direction. The storm is also expected to pick up speed a bit.

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4pm Thursday Update:

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 16.5°N 37.8°W
Max Wind: 60 MPH
Movement: WNW 18 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 999 mb

Not much has changed with Dorian ever since its formation Wednesday. It has gotten a bit stronger though and will continue to do so very slowly over the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm force winds now extend 60 miles outward from the center of circulation of Dorian.

By Friday, Dorian is expected to move more westerly and ever closer to the United States.

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10am Thursday Update:

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 16.0°N 35.9°W
Max Wind: 60 MPH
Movement: WNW 17 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 999 mb

Other than its position, there has been little change noted with Dorian since the 4am update from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm force winds now extend 60 miles outward from the center of circulation of Dorian.

Although Dorian made it past "cooler" waters in the Atlantic overnight, it is going to start to encounter an environment that is slightly less productive for this storm to increase over the next day. Stable air could cause this system to weaken a bit,but it is still anticipated to remain tropical storm classification.

One interesting note this morning. Only 12 tropical systems have formed within 100NM of where Dorian did, since 1950 -- all of which missed making landfall in the United States. The graphic below shows the historical paths of those storms (courtesy of Jim Loznicka WJHG):


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4am Thursday Summary

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 15.6°N 34.5°W
Max Wind: 60 MPH
Movement: WNW 17 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 999 mb


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10pm Wednesday Summary

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 15.1°N 33.2°W
Max Wind: 50 MPH
Movement: WNW 20 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 1002 mb

Topical storm force winds extend 45 miles outwards from the center of Dorian.

Not much strengthening is expected for Dorian over the next 48 hours. It isn't expected to change much in speed either as it moves westward towards the United States.

Next Official Advisory:
4am CDT Thursday

5pm Wednesday Summary

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 14.6°N 31.4°W
Max Wind: 50 MPH
Movement: WNW 20 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 1002 mb

Topical storm force winds extend 45 miles outwards from the center of Dorian.

Dorian is moving WNW and will continue on this trek at least for the next few days. Thursday, Dorian is expected to move over cooler water which will not help with intensification and may cause it to decrease in strength.

Next Official Advisory:
10pm CDT Wednesday

10am Wednesday Summary

Status: Tropical Storm
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Max Wind: 50 MPH
Movement: WNW 21 MPH
Minimum Pressure: 1002 mb

Topical storm force winds extend 45 miles outwards from the center of Dorian.

Some strengthening is expected / possible from Dorian later today -- however, this system is expected to then weaken a bit as it moves over cooler water.

After roughly 48 hours or so, Dorian is expected to move back over warmer, more favorable, water, but encounter stronger shear in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. With those two conditions off-setting each other, Dorian is forecast to hold a steady intensity as it continues to the west / northwest.

Next Official Advisory:
4pm CDT Wednesday

Latest, Official National Hurricane Center Forecast


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